{"id":21821,"date":"2026-07-09T08:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T05:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=21821"},"modified":"2026-07-09T17:18:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T14:18:50","slug":"tracker-economy-during-the-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/tracker-economy-during-the-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine War Economy Tracker"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>The Economy Tracker provides regular updates on the state of Ukraine\u2019s economy during the war, bringing together key indicators and charts in one place. Sections are updated on a rolling basis to reflect the latest data.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>You may also be interested in our <a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\">Monthly Economic Reviews<\/a>, which feature a focused topic and bring together key experts for discussions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"gdp\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">GDP<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-06-11\">11 June 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>After a 28.8% decline in 2022, Ukraine\u2019s economy began to recover, although growth has gradually slowed. Following 5.5% growth in 2023, real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024 and by 1.8% in 2025. Weaker economic performance largely reflected the impact of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and other wartime challenges.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Q1 2026, real GDP fell for the first time since 2023 \u2014 by 0.6% y-o-y or 0.7% q-o-q (seasonally adjusted). GDP declined due to the energy crisis caused by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/25067337\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/25067337\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21252978\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21252978\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"inflation-and-monetary-policy\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Inflation and monetary policy<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-09\">9 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br>In June, inflation slowed and prices even declined by 0.1% after the spring surge caused by the war in Iran. In annual terms, price growth eased from 8.2% in May to 7.2% in June. Ukraine entered the full-scale war with consumer inflation at 10% year-on-year.<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"For example, in February 2022, consumer prices were 10% higher than in February 2021. Russia\u2019s invasion caused a sharp acceleration in inflation, which peaked at 26.6% y-o-y in October 2022. The main drivers were the direct consequences of the war: destruction of production facilities, disruptions to supply chains, and rising business costs. Additional inflationary pressure came from the National Bank\u2019s money financing of the budget deficit. In 2022, the NBU printed UAH 400 billion ($12.5 billion) to purchase government war bonds.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;p&gt;By late 2022 and throughout 2023, inflation was brought under control thanks to the stabilisation of the economic situation, sound policy actions by the NBU, and the end of budget financing through money printing. Record harvests in 2023 also contributed to lower inflation. However, inflation began accelerating again in 2024, reaching a peak in May 2025. Since then, it has been slowing for an extended period.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\n\n\n<p>Food prices fell by 0.8% month-on-month. In particular, prices declined in June for eggs (-27.8%), vegetables (-3.7%), sugar (-0.8%) and milk (-0.5%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel prices fell by 1.6% in June. However, fuel remains 33.4% more expensive than in June 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the NBU\u2019s forecast, inflation will accelerate again to 9.4% year-on-year by the end of 2026, but will then start to decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-table\" data-src=\"visualisation\/23919257\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/23919257\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"table visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-heatmap\" data-src=\"visualisation\/20884584\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/20884584\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"heatmap visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NBU kept the key policy rate<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"The NBU uses its main monetary instrument, the key policy rate, to influence inflation. The key policy rate indirectly affects the interest rate at which banks lend to businesses and households and the interest rate at which they attract deposits. When the Ministry of Finance plans to sell military bonds, it looks at the deposit rate \u2013 government bonds should be more attractive and profitable.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span> at 15% at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 19 June 2026. The NBU considers the current situation stable enough not to raise the policy rate. However, the regulator also stated that it stands ready to increase it if needed to keep inflation under control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21790520\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21790520\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21789620\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21789620\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"foreign-exchange-rate-and-reserves\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Foreign exchange rate and reserves<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-07\">7 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In June 2026, Ukraine\u2019s international reserves increased by 12.1% to $51.3bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the month, reserves received $11.3bn in international assistance: $6.8 bn from the EU and $4.5 bn through World Bank accounts. Another $4.4 bn from the EU, provided as part of the first defence tranche under the Ukraine Support Loan programme, was not formally included in international reserves due to its earmarked use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currency outflows were much lower than inflows. The NBU carried out FX interventions<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\" FX interventions are purchases or sales of foreign currency by a central bank \u2014 the NBU in Ukraine\u2019s case \u2014 on the market. They are used to prevent sharp exchange rate fluctuations. \" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span> worth $5.1 bn to smooth fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate. Another $270 mln went towards servicing and repaying public debt in foreign currency, while $172 mln was paid to the IMF. The revaluation of financial instruments and other factors reduced reserves by a further $191mn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the NBU\u2019s large FX interventions, substantial inflows from international partners fully offset currency outflows. The current level of reserves is sufficient to finance 5.2 months of future imports \u2014 well above the minimum recommended level of 3 months.<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\" Three months of import cover means that international reserves are sufficient for a country to pay for imports for three months without any external foreign currency inflows. This rule emerged as a simple way to assess whether a country has a minimum foreign currency buffer in case of an external shock \u2014 for example, a sharp drop in exports or a delay in financial assistance. The indicator is widely used internationally as a basic benchmark of reserve adequacy, although the 3-month threshold is only indicative. For Ukraine, import cover below 3 months would mean increased vulnerability, while exceeding this level is a positive signal but does not guarantee full financial stability given war-related and debt risks.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21480093\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21480093\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21480931\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21480931\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the second half of October 2025, the US dollar exchange rate \u2014 both the official NBU rate and the cash market rate \u2014 has been rising and has already approached UAH 45\/$. This depreciation has been managed by the NBU, which continues to operate under a managed flexibility regime, intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent excessive fluctuations. Sharp exchange rate movements remain unlikely given the adequate level of FX reserves, which enables the NBU to continue conducting such interventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21333515\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21333515\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"foreign-financial-aid\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Foreign financial aid<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-07\">7 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Since the start of the full-scale invasion, all domestic revenues of Ukraine\u2019s state budget have gone to finance defence; these expenditures account for roughly half of the budget. Ukraine finances all civilian state budget expenditures with foreign financial assistance \u2014 in 2026, the need for such external financing is about $50 bn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2026, Ukraine has already launched a new cooperation programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and received the first credit tranche of $1.5 bn. Ukraine also continues to receive funds under the ERA programme (financed from proceeds generated by frozen Russian assets) \u2014 $9.7 bn already in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/25136060\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/25136060\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2025, foreign aid covered 56% of Ukraine\u2019s additional state budget needs, down from 73% in 2024. In 2025, the main source of external financing was the ERA programme \u2014 a mechanism for transferring proceeds from frozen Russian assets. In 2026, financing from the European Union under a large \u20ac90 bn loan will be crucial for Ukraine. The first tranches were disbursed in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/16716397\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"fiscal-policy\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Fiscal policy<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-06-22\">22 June 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Total tax revenues rose 27% m-o-m to UAH 210 bn in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the monthly increase is largely seasonal: UAH 68.6 bn came from corporate profit tax (CPT) \u2013 as Q1 filings fall due in May. This is 1.5x higher y-o-y, partly reflecting post-fuel-crisis economy recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal income tax revenues also increased: edged up 2% m-o-m and 21% y-o-y to UAH 36.7 bn. This is consistent with real wage growth (avg. salary: UAH 25,160 in April 2025 \u2192 UAH 30,515 in April 2026&nbsp; per State Statistics Service).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Revenues from other taxes weakened, especially against the backdrop of reduced consumption following the fuel crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Import VAT \u2014 the largest non-seasonal revenue source \u2014 fell 7% m-o-m to UAH 53.1bn, tracking an import contraction ($9.8bn \u2192 $7.3bn, led by fuel).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21516254\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21516254\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>After nominal war spending declined 1% y-o-y in Q1 2026 amid tight budget resources, April saw a rebound to UAH 373 bn (UAH 297 bn domestic-funded&nbsp; &#8211; 1.6x&nbsp; y-o-y&nbsp; + UAH 76 bn defence aid<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"\u2018In-kind military support\u2019 is the expenditures from material military aid that are accounted for as revenues of budgetary institutions. Such military aid may be reflected in the budget indicators with a delay and\/or in an incomplete amount.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span> \u2014 2x&nbsp; y-o-y ). However, the defence spending plan from the General Fund for January\u2013April was only 80% fulfilled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Q1 pattern reflects front-loaded fiscal constraints rather than reduced commitment; the March\u2013April acceleration is a catch-up effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Security and defence remain the dominant priority at ~63% of war spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Social protection holds second place at 7.5% of the total state budget&nbsp; (UAH 41 bn in April, +UAH 2 bn m-o-m).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sharpest non-military increase was debt servicing \u2014 UAH 38 bn, 2.4x m-o-m \u2014 driven by domestic bond obligations, with elevated payments expected through at least June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21516502\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21516502\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"job-market-and-unemployment\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Job market and unemployment<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-01\">1 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ukraine\u2019s labour market experiences all the challenges of a full-scale war. The economic shock of the beginning of the Russian invasion led to a drop in both demand and supply of labour. Businesses stopped hiring and people stopped applying for jobs. Later, demand for labour began to recover. The number of people looking for a new job soared in the summer of 2022 and exceeded the average for 2021. However, the trends diverged from there: the need for labour was recovering along with the economic recovery, while the activity of job seekers was declining, not least due to Ukrainians\u2019 migration abroad and mobilisation into the Defence Forces.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In mid-January 2026, the number of new CVs rose sharply, surpassing pre-war levels for the first time since 2022. Meanwhile, the number of new vacancies has fluctuated at around 120\u2013130% of the 2021 baseline. Importantly, this does not mean there are more vacancies than CVs. On average, there are about 2.5 new CVs for every new vacancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NB: We recalculated the indices, excluding data from the Jooble aggregator due to their significant difference from the data from work.ua and robota.ua.<br><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/22516625\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/22516625\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The State Statistics Service of Ukraine stopped publishing unemployment data when the full-scale war started. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sapiens.com.ua\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Info Sapiens<\/a>&nbsp;research agency makes its own estimates of the unemployment rate. According to these estimates, Ukraine&#8217;s unemployment rate edged up to 14.0% in June 2026. The proxy indicator of poverty \u2014 the share of respondents who reported having to cut back on food spending \u2014 also increased, reaching 23.4% in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that neither the number of unemployed people nor the size of the working-age population is known with certainty, it is appropriate to analyse this unemployment estimate over time. We see that over the past few years Ukraine has experienced a decline in the unemployment rate, while the overall level of poverty has remained high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21517170\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21517170\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"business-and-consumers-expectations\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Business and consumers expectations<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-01\">1 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In June 2026, the seasonally adjusted<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method that removes regular, predictable fluctuations that recur every year \u2014 for example, the impact of holidays, agricultural seasons or winter slowdowns \u2014 to provide a clearer view of underlying economic trends. For these calculations, we use the X-13ARIMA-SEATS method developed by the US Census Bureau. When applied to indicators such as the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), seasonal adjustment makes month-to-month changes more meaningful: instead of being distorted by seasonal factors, they better reflect real shifts in economic activity, helping to understand whether expectations are genuinely improving or worsening rather than fluctuating because of usual seasonal patterns.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span> Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) edged down to 48.8 and remained close to the positive zone, though still below the neutral level. The original BAEI data also declined slightly but remained in positive territory. Seasonally adjusted data help reveal the underlying trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the NBU, business sentiment was primarily weighed down by the continued destruction of production capacities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Changes in business expectations are an important subjective indicator of the economic situation, signalling a gradual recovery or deterioration in business activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21517305\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21517305\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The Info Sapiens Consumer Sentiment Index stood at 76.9 points in April 2026, improving compared with January (73.5).<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"At the start of the full-scale war, consumer sentiment spiked despite a deterioration in households\u2019 real economic conditions \u2014 Ukrainians were highly optimistic about the future. This \u201ccorridor\u201d of optimism gradually narrowed as sentiment slowly returned to pre-war patterns. However, in November 2024, the trend shifted: people\u2019s assessment of their current situation continued to worsen for several months, while expectations for the future improved. This may have been linked to Donald Trump\u2019s victory in the US presidential election and hopes for a quick end to the war. In April 2025, the trend reversed again, with expectations beginning to deteriorate.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span> An index reading below 100 means that negative consumer sentiment prevails among the population. The Consumer Sentiment Index consists of the Index of Economic Expectations (88.3 in April) and the Current Situation Index (59.9). Consumer sentiment improved in the spring, as it usually does. However, in April 2026 it remained weaker than in the same month of previous years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here we do not apply seasonal adjustment because, for consumer expectations, there are not enough observations, and the fluctuations are mostly unsystematic and not tied to the month of the year. This contrasts with businesses, whose expectations are shaped by more fundamental seasonal patterns in consumption, project cycles, agriculture, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, as of January 2026, Info Sapiens has discontinued its monthly consumer sentiment survey \u2014 updates will now be published on a quarterly basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21517572\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21517572\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"energy-sector\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Energy sector<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-01\">1 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br>In June 2026, Ukraine continued to increase electricity exports, which rose by more than 50% compared with May to 154.5 GWh. The growth was driven by the seasonal increase in solar generation and lower domestic demand. Hungary remained the largest importer of Ukrainian electricity, purchasing around 85 GWh, followed by Moldova and Romania at 47 GWh and 20 GWh, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the increase in exports, imports still exceeded them by almost two times: Ukraine remains a net electricity importer. However, the import-to-export ratio is gradually narrowing \u2014 from 4.2 in May to 1.9 in June. Ukraine has to import large volumes of electricity primarily because of the consequences of Russian attacks.<span class=\"c-tooltip\" data-tippy-content=\"Russia continues to attack Ukraine\u2019s energy system in order to cause as much damage and as many prolonged power outages as possible. However, Ukrainian energy workers are repairing the damage and strengthening the protection of critical facilities. Thanks to these efforts, Ukraine entered 2025 with minimal or no power outages for households and industrial consumers. The situation even allowed for commercial electricity exports during certain hours: this helped balance the system and generated additional revenue for energy companies. Closer to November\u2013December, the attacks intensified and the situation deteriorated.\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"17\" height=\"17\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path d=\"M10 0C4.48 0 0 4.48 0 10C0 15.52 4.48 20 10 20C15.52 20 20 15.52 20 10C20 4.48 15.52 0 10 0ZM11 15H9V9H11V15ZM11 7H9V5H11V7Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\n\n\n<p>Export volumes could have been significantly higher if not for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) \u2014 the EU\u2019s carbon levy on imports of carbon-intensive goods, which entered into full force on 1 January 2026. According to Forbes Ukraine, Ukrainian electricity exporters lost around $26 million in revenue in the first quarter due to CBAM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21097456\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21097456\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of June, forced power outages returned in Ukraine for the first time since mid-April. According to Ukrenergo, the reason was an abnormal heatwave that affected all regions of the country and led to widespread and prolonged use of air conditioners. The situation was further complicated by the consequences of Russian attacks, scheduled summer maintenance at generation facilities, including nuclear power plants, and record heat in neighbouring European countries, which limited electricity imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 1 May, price caps were raised to UAH 15,000\/MWh, which partly restored access to imports during deficit hours. Despite this, imports fell to 295 GWh in June, down from 397 GWh in May, due to lower electricity demand and higher solar generation. The largest suppliers were Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, at 125 GWh, 74 GWh and 69 GWh, respectively. Poland and Moldova supplied 26 GWh and 0.7 GWh, respectively. Price caps should be fully abolished, but even raising them allows the market to respond more flexibly to shortages. Ukraine pays the market price for imported electricity \u2014 it is not aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/19221802\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/19221802\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Prices on the day-ahead market (DAM) increased slightly in June \u2014 to UAH 5.7\/kWh, up from UAH 5.2\/kWh in May. The increase reflects a capacity shortage in the power system, aggravated by the consequences of Russian attacks and peak loads on hot days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/28229533\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/28229533\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"agriculture\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Agriculture<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-06-22\">22 June 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>As of 15 June, 98% of spring crops or 5,9 million hectares have been sown, which is slightly higher than up to the same date in 2025 (5,7 million hectares) due to the need to replant winter crops lost in the extremely cold winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The conditions for winter crops are better than in 2025 across most of the country, thanks to sufficient soil moisture reserves. However, the recent rainfall and the cold start of summer have created favourable conditions for the diseases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The total harvest of grains and oilseeds is expected to reach 81\u201383 million tons, with 60-61 million tons of grain, according to the Ministry of Economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USDA improved Ukraine&#8217;s wheat harvest forecast for 2026\/2027 MY by 0,5 million tons to 23,5 million tons and an unchanged corn harvest forecast (30 million tons), despite risks to yields due to a lack of fertilisers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ministry of Economy updated the procedure for the duty-free export of soybeans and rapeseed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/16717939\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"metallurgy\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Metallurgy<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-06-22\">22 June 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In May, metallurgical production grew by 15-22% m-o-m. However, in Jan \u2013 May it remained lower by 1-7% y-o-y amid competition with China and Turkey dumped imports and CBAM regulations, which reduced EU demand for Ukrainian metallurgical products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Interagency Commission on International Trade has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into metallurgical imports from Turkey, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrzaliznytsia plans to increase freight tariffs by at least 45% in 2026&nbsp;due to rising repair costs for damaged infrastructure and debt service. However, it will cover about half of the expected UAH 26 bn deficit. Agricultural and metallurgical companies warn that a sharp increase in transportation costs could reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian products on global markets and hurt exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/16457676\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"banking-sector\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Banking sector<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-01\">1 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Household deposits continued to grow after a slight decline in March. Demand deposits in both hryvnia and foreign currency remain at elevated levels \u2014 more than 200% of their nominal 2021 value \u2014 indicating strong demand for liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/17200260\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Lending in Ukraine is growing rapidly and confidently. Credit growth is driven both by strong business demand and by competition among banks, which has led them to ease lending conditions. Consumer lending is also expanding quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, note that while deposits have already reached 200% of their 2021 nominal level, loans have not. A gap between deposits and lending remains. Banks still find it attractive to place funds in NBU deposit certificates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We updated the corporate hryvnia loans index to reflect PrivatBank&#8217;s write-off of NPLs from Kolomoisky&#8217;s era.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/17200037\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-acf-heading-date\" id=\"foreign-trade\">\n        <h2 class=\"acf-heading-date__title\">Foreign trade<\/h2>\n        <p class=\"acf-heading-date__text\">\n            Text updated on             <time datetime=\"2026-07-01\">1 July 2026<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>According to preliminary NBU data, in May 2026 the balance of goods and services was negative, at -$5.4 bn. In May, Ukraine imported a total of $10.3 bn. Of this, goods imports accounted for $8.2 bn and services imports for $2.1 bn. Exports reached $4.9 bn, including $3.5 bn in goods exports and $1.4 bn in services exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/17015026\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The comments and data in this Tracker have been adapted for an international audience with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We use ChatGPT while working on this page to help edit and translate texts. The author, economist Maksym Samoiliuk, is responsible for the quality of the final product.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Economy Tracker provides regular updates on the state of Ukraine\u2019s economy during the war, bringing together key indicators and charts in one place. Sections are updated on a rolling basis to reflect the latest data. You may also be interested in our Monthly Economic Reviews, which feature a focused topic and bring together key [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/template-economy-tracker.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[197,143],"tags":[],"experts":[462],"news_type":[140],"class_list":["post-21821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-list-en","category-home-news-en","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21821"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21821\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44090,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21821\/revisions\/44090"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21821"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=21821"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=21821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}