{"id":24678,"date":"2023-08-03T10:00:22","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T07:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=24678"},"modified":"2025-08-06T13:26:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T10:26:30","slug":"macroforecast-2023-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/macroforecast-2023-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"The new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: unraveling the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: unraveling the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_in6jIszPto\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2023 \u2013 it expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 2.9% instead of 2% and inflation to slow down to 10.6% (previously expected to be 14.8%).<\/p>\n<p>It was influenced by the results of the first two quarters of the year, which turned out to be better than the regulator had predicted.<\/p>\n<p>However, the Ukrainian investment companies Dragon Capital and ICU have more optimistic forecasts of GDP growth &#8211; 4.5% and more than 5%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>We considered these and other forecasts more at the online event &#8220;The new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: unravelling the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maria Repko,<\/strong> the deputy director of the CES, presented the consensus forecast of six leaders of Ukrainian and foreign analytical teams.<\/p>\n<p>After that, we discussed why the forecasts are improving and outlined the risks that could change the course of events in the future.<\/p>\n<p>Comments and overview of the institution\u2019s forecasts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Natalia Gorshkova<\/strong>, Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economy;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sergiy Nikolaychuk<\/strong>, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Vahram Stepanyan<\/strong>, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Invited participants:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Olena Bilan, <\/strong>Director of the Analytical Department at Dragon Capital investment company and member of the CES Supervisory Board<strong>;<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Oleksandra Betliy, <\/strong>Senior Expert at the Institute for Economic Research and Political Consultations;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Oleksii Blinov<\/strong>, Chief Economist, Sense Bank;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Evghenia Sleptsova<\/strong>, Senior Economist, Oxford Economics;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Vitalii Vavryschuk<\/strong>, Head of the Macroeconomic Research Department, ICU.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>This event is one of the activities within the Good Governance Fund project &#8220;Economic HUB: Sound PFM Policies and Vision for Growth,&#8221; which is supported by UK Aid from the UK Government. The project delivery partners are Abt Britain and Centre for Economic Strategy.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2023 \u2013 it expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 2.9% instead of 2% and inflation to slow down to 10.6% (previously expected to be 14.8%). It was influenced by the results of the first two quarters of the year, which turned out to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[176,188,197,143],"tags":[663],"experts":[],"news_type":[137,138],"class_list":["post-24678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macroeconomics-en","category-podii-en","category-research-list-en","category-home-news-en","tag-macroforecast-en-2","news_type-podiyi","news_type-press-release"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24678"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36059,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24678\/revisions\/36059"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24678"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=24678"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=24678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}