{"id":28119,"date":"2024-04-16T16:00:46","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T13:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=28119"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:41:38","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T13:41:38","slug":"economic-review-in-march-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economic-review-in-march-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic review in March 2024. How can the Ukrainian economy withstand new energy attacks?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\"><span class=\"s1\">under the link.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Executive summary:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\">\n<li data-charcodes=\"8226\" data-font=\"Arial,Sans-Serif\" data-buautonum=\"8\" data-margin=\"450\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@568B26,4,18:75000\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Special topic:<\/span><\/b><b><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Russia intensified attacks on energy infrastructure. The energy system of Ukraine now has a\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">deficit of generation capacity. Ukraine needs nearly $5 bn to restore capacity of the united energy system.<\/span>\u200b<\/li>\n<li data-charcodes=\"8226\" data-font=\"Arial,Sans-Serif\" data-buautonum=\"8\" data-margin=\"450\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@568B26,4,18:75000\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Macroeconomic trends:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">GDP increased by 5.3% in 2023, but the growth only partially offset the 28.8%\u00a0 GDP\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">drop in 2022. Business expectations were\u00a0 positive again in March \u2014 for the first time in half a year.\u00a0<\/span>\u200b<\/li>\n<li data-charcodes=\"8226\" data-font=\"Arial,Sans-Serif\" data-buautonum=\"8\" data-margin=\"450\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@568B26,4,18:75000\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Sectoral analysis:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Steel production sets new wartime highs, with 611 kt produced in March 2024 \u2014 still 3\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">times lower than in March 2021.\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Exports of grain and oilseeds decreased as seasonality returns.\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">IT exports\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">remain on two-year low.<\/span>\u200b<\/li>\n<li data-charcodes=\"8226\" data-font=\"Arial,Sans-Serif\" data-buautonum=\"8\" data-margin=\"450\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@568B26,4,18:75000\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Monetary, FX, and Banking sector:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Inflation slows down even further to\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">3.2<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">% in March,<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">and NBU decreased\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">the key rate to 14.5%; NBU keeps the key rate high to support the appeal of hryvnia assets. International\u00a0<\/span><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">reserves increased thanks to large foreign aid, but hryvnia continued to devalue.\u00a0<\/span>\u200b<\/li>\n<li data-charcodes=\"8226\" data-font=\"Arial,Sans-Serif\" data-buautonum=\"8\" data-margin=\"450\" data-aria-posinset=\"5\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@568B26,4,18:75000\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">Fiscal sector:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">In March, Ukraine received $8.9 bn of foreign financing, a highest-ever amount. The large\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">inflows of foreign financing in March somewhat levelled out the negative situation that had been developing\u00a0<\/span><span data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">in the first quarter of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The recording of discussion is available via the <a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/new-energy-attacks-eng\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">You can also access the visualization of monthly highlights through our regularly updated\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/tracker-economy-during-the-war\/\"><span class=\"s1\">Ukraine War Economy Tracker<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found\u00a0under the link. Executive summary: Special topic:\u00a0Russia intensified attacks on energy infrastructure. The energy system of Ukraine now has a\u00a0deficit of generation capacity. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[492,197,143],"tags":[595,610,696],"experts":[464,513,462,478],"news_type":[140],"class_list":["post-28119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-during-the-war-en","category-research-list-en","category-home-news-en","tag-energy-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-monthly-economic-reviews","experts-yurii-gaidai-en","experts-volodymyr-landa","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","experts-mariia-tomilina","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31741,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28119\/revisions\/31741"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28119"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=28119"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=28119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}