{"id":30850,"date":"2024-10-29T17:27:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T14:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=30850"},"modified":"2024-10-29T18:23:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T15:23:16","slug":"different_forecasts_for_ukraines_economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/different_forecasts_for_ukraines_economy\/","title":{"rendered":"The IMF and the Ministry of Economy see the economic future of Ukraine differently: what are the differences"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In its updated macro forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the real GDP of Ukraine to grow by 3% in 2024, while the Ministry of Economy has set 2.7% in the draft budget for next year. <\/span><b>Oleksandra Myronenko<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, an economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), said who is more optimistic about Ukraine&#8217;s economic future.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>What are the differences between macro forecasts for Ukraine from the Ministry of Economy and the IMF<\/b><\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>Ukraine&#8217;s GDP forecast:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IMF expects real GDP to grow by 3% in 2024, and by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2025;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ministry of Economy forecasts growth at the level of 2.7% in 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>Inflation forecast:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IMF \u2013 7,5% in 2025;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ministry of Economy \u2013 9,7% in 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>Exchange rate forecast:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IMF \u2013 41 UAH\/$ in 2024, 45 UAH\/$ in 2025 and 49 UAH\/$ in 2027;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ministry of Economy \u2013 40.7 UAH\/$ in 2024, 45 UAH\/$ in 2025 and 46.4 UAH\/$ in 2027.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>Salary forecast in Ukraine:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IMF expects more growth in real wages in 2024 \u2013 10.2%, while less in 2025 \u2013 7.5%;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ministry of Economy \u2013 8.5% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>Forecast for the end of the war:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IMF expects the war to end in late 2025 or mid-2026 in a worst-case scenario;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ministry of Economy predicts that hostilities will continue throughout 2025, so a large part of expenses (26.3% of GDP) will go to military needs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a reminder, Ukraine&#8217;s real GDP grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the growth rate was 3.7%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thepage.ua\/ua\/news\/mvf-i-minekonomiki-po-riznomu-bachat-ekonomichne-majbutnye-ukrayini-vidminnosti\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Page.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other news from CES experts via <\/span><\/i><a href=\"\/?cat_ID=187\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the link<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In its updated macro forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the real GDP of Ukraine to grow by 3% in 2024, while the Ministry of Economy has set 2.7% in the draft budget for next year. Oleksandra Myronenko, an economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), said who is more optimistic about Ukraine&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30198,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[],"experts":[505],"news_type":[139],"class_list":["post-30850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-experts-in-the-media-en","experts-oleksandra-myronenko","news_type-we-are-in-media"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30850\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30850"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=30850"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=30850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}