{"id":32421,"date":"2025-02-13T16:39:34","date_gmt":"2025-02-13T13:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=32421"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:37:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T13:37:47","slug":"economic_review_in_february_2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economic_review_in_february_2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic review in February 2025. Can Ukraine rely on its financial reserves to stabilize the front?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/GMy1-mN7OBs?si=0heuwKAMgYLxUBSA\" width=\"760\" height=\"415\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe>Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0All notes can be found under the <a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in February:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><b>Monetary, FX, and Banking sector: <\/b>Key rate up to 14.5%, inflation hit 12.9%. FX reserves down to $43 bn, but hryvnia strengthened. Deposit growth &amp; rise in UAH loans.<\/li>\n<li><b>Sectoral analysis: <\/b>Power system stable despite shelling and cold weather, but the Rada takes a controversial step in purchasing Russian nuclear power plant reactors. Steel production hit a 5-month high; meanwhile, the industry could be impacted by U.S. protectionist measures. Grain &amp; oilseed exports hit lowest level since 2023, and corn made up two-thirds of grain and oilseed exports by tonnage in January. Agricultural exports expected to decline by 26% in 2024\/25: this is a result of low level of soil moisture, especially in Eastern regions. IT services exports in 2024 fell by 5% to $6.45 bn. December 2024 showed the highest monthly IT exports in 2023-2024.<\/li>\n<li><b>Fiscal sector: <\/b>Revenues in January slightly outpace CPI y-o-y. VAT anomaly repeats, excise losses accumulate. State revenues cover only war costs. Defence and security expenses exceed 65% of the state spending.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Special topic:<\/strong> ERA financing is a gamechanger for 2025. Ukraine will receive $50 bn backed by Russian frozen assets. Foreign financing in 2025 surpasses expected needs: can available resources be redirected to strengthen defense? The ERA funds must be used wisely, and a safety margin must be maintained for 2026-2027.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">See our presentation for further details. The panelists were:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Andriy Zahorodniuk, Chairman of the \u201cCentre for Defense Strategies\u201d, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2019-2020);<\/li>\n<li>Volodymyr Tsabal, Secretary of the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine;<\/li>\n<li>Mykola Bielieskov, Senior Analyst at CBA Initiatives Center;<\/li>\n<li>Lyubov Shipovich, co-founder of Razom for Ukraine, founder of Dignitas Foundation;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moderator: <strong>Hlib Vyshlinsky<\/strong>, Executive Director of CES.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Media partner: Ekonomichna Pravda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeffSince March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0All notes can be found under the link. Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in February: Monetary, FX, and Banking sector: Key rate up to 14.5%, inflation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32309,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[197,492,175,200,143],"tags":[546,560,610,696],"experts":[464,513,462,478],"news_type":[138,140],"class_list":["post-32421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-list-en","category-economy-during-the-war-en","category-press-releases","category-news-list-en","category-home-news-en","tag-budget-en","tag-financial-sector-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-monthly-economic-reviews","experts-yurii-gaidai-en","experts-volodymyr-landa","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","experts-mariia-tomilina","news_type-press-release","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32421"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32421\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32467,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32421\/revisions\/32467"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32421"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=32421"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=32421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}