{"id":33502,"date":"2025-04-29T17:00:58","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T14:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=33502"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:37:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T13:37:12","slug":"economic-review-in-april-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economic-review-in-april-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic review in April 2025. Does Ukraine have enough gas?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yATj0BfAwtU?si=XImffIxp9U4Zt60H\" width=\"760\" height=\"415\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0All notes can be found under the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in April:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><b>Macroeconomic trends: <\/b>GDP grew by just 2.9% in 2024 \u2014 below all forecasts. Economic recovery continues, but momentum is fading. Business and consumer expectations remain positive. Ukrainians maintain optimism despite challenging geopolitical developments.<\/li>\n<li><b>Monetary, FX, and banking sectors: <\/b>Inflation hits 14.6%, Key policy rate steady at 15.5%. Reserves up, hryvnia strengthens on lower demand. Hryvnia lending and deposit grow amid FX weakness.<\/li>\n<li><b>Fiscal sector: <\/b>Historically high March revenues due to CPT from banks: The state budget received UAH 214 bn of taxes, adding 38% y-o-y. January expenditures are twice as high as last year as defense aid drives spending increase.<\/li>\n<li><b>Sectoral analysis: <\/b>Cold spring leaves Ukraine reliant on electricity imports with fragile energy armistice at risk of breaking down. Daily metallurgy output falls in March. There are no preconditions for a repeat of last year&#8217;s positive trend in Q2. The end of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) by the EU in June as a major challenge for agri. In March, monthly exports of grains and oilseeds around 4 mt for the fourth consecutive month.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Special topic:<\/strong> From self-sufficiency to heavy import dependence: Moscow regime terroristic attacks wreck Ukraine\u2019s domestic gas production capacity. Gas reserves at historic lows post-winter. Import reliance grows amid record-high infrastructure losses. Ukraine can import enough \u2014 if politics cooperates. A guaranteed capacity to receive gas from the EU is much higher than ~4.5 bcm needed. Up to $3.5 bn needed for winter energy security: imports, infrastructure restoration, and production ramp-up require urgent funding.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>See our report for further details.<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Invited speakers:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><strong>Oleksandr Kharchenko<\/strong>, Managing Director at EIR Center.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nataliya Boyko<\/strong>, Deputy Chairperson of the Supervisory Board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Torsten W\u00f6llert<\/strong>, Energy Counsellor at the EU Delegation to Ukraine.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Andri<\/strong><strong>y<\/strong><strong>\u00a0Herus<\/strong>, Member of Parliament, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Artem Shevalev<\/strong><strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>Alternate Board Director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moderator: <strong>Hlib Vyshlinsky<\/strong>, Executive Director of CES.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Media partner \u2014 Ekonomichna Pravda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0All notes can be found under the\u00a0link. Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in April: Macroeconomic trends: GDP grew by just 2.9% in 2024 \u2014 below [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[492,197,143],"tags":[595,610,696],"experts":[464,513,462,505,478],"news_type":[140],"class_list":["post-33502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-during-the-war-en","category-research-list-en","category-home-news-en","tag-energy-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-monthly-economic-reviews","experts-yurii-gaidai-en","experts-volodymyr-landa","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","experts-oleksandra-myronenko","experts-mariia-tomilina","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33502"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33536,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33502\/revisions\/33536"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33502"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=33502"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=33502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}