{"id":34105,"date":"2025-05-22T17:53:28","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T14:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=34105"},"modified":"2025-05-22T17:53:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T14:53:28","slug":"turbulence_usa_ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/turbulence_usa_ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"What is turbulence for the USA is just Monday for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This Monday in Verona pre-URC conference, I was invited to speak on a panel. The theme was on the role of private sector in strengthening services to citizens in Ukrainian regions \u2014 a topic that sits at the intersection of public policies, foreign investments, and wartime regional development.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The moderator brought up something I\u2019d once said: <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWhat is turbulence for the USA is just Monday for Ukraine.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> I stand by that. But if turbulence implies both ups and downs \u2014 we wouldn\u2019t actually mind it. Because we\u2019ve been mostly in the \u2018down\u2019 since the global financial crisis. Not just since 2022. Investment in Ukraine never really had a chance to rebound.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While neighbouring Poland have received approx. \u20ac90 bn in FDI during the last three years, climbing the GDP ladder, and closing the gap with developed EU economies, Ukraine, a country with with comparable population, had got less than \u20ac9 bn in FDI in 2022-2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besides chronic underinvestment and weak capital inflows, what also does not help is deepening the fragmenting of the development across regions \u2013 the capital city of Kyiv gets on average 60-70% of FDI inflows.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But something is changing. We are three Ukraine Recovery Conferences wiser than we were in Lugano. The mood is different. Peace talks are starting to re-enter the conversation. The Ukraine Investment Framework from the EU is set up to mobilize tens of billions of euros. EU accession and getting the internal market regime with the member states is not a vague perspective anymore. Against the background of the EU competitiveness and self-sustaining policies coupled with the decreasing dependencies on China and the US, this might make Ukraine a new and interesting production hub.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One might cautiously hope this moment turns into durable momentum\u2014and if it does, the question for regions, policymakers, and investors becomes simple: will we rise to the challenge, or miss it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are clear risks of missing it, and they appear across all three key points of contact between regions and foreign investors:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Public procurement \u2013 Corruption, favoritism, and poor practices can cause lasting damage. Reputational risk spreads fast, and today\u2019s suppliers may be tomorrow\u2019s investors. Eroding trust at this stage can derail long-term engagement.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Public-private partnerships \u2013 These must be structured in a streamlined, reliable, and stable way, where all parties keep their commitments. Otherwise, failed projects will generate bad publicity and deter future involvement\u2014especially critical given the ambitious plans for airport, seaport, and other infrastructure concessions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Private investment projects \u2013 The key here is to create a low-bureaucracy, level playing field for anyone ready to invest. Reducing friction at this entry point sends a clear message: Ukraine is open for serious, transparent business.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From my perspective as a think tank analyst and economist, I can offer one clear recommendation: transparency. Not the abstract, moral kind\u2014but the kind that makes markets work.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Transparency in conflict data has enabled the creation of live risk maps by global insurance providers. This means Ukrainian regions less affected by war can start to appear on investors\u2019 maps\u2014maps that would otherwise mark the entire country in red.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prozorro and DREAM platforms offer digital access to public procurements and reconstruction project pipelines. These tools are open to anyone interested. New public investment management instruments\u2014like the Single Project Pipeline\u2014will significantly improve access to investment opportunities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Regional economic, demographic, and labor market data\u2014still frustratingly scarce\u2014would help businesses identify opportunities and choose production sites wisely. We are actively working to make this data available and usable.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ukraine is already may be the most digitally visible investment landscape in a warzone. Possibly in Europe. So what could the main stakeholders do to facilitate this right king of transparency?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To regional leaders: Make yourselves visible. Use the IFIs\u2019 tools. Work with civil society. One good project can start a wave of credibility. Just don\u2019t kill it with silence, red tape, or misconduct.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To policymakers in Ukraine and Europe: Help the regions be seen. Fund the platforms. Promote the projects. Reform local governance so smart people don\u2019t have to choose between public service and paying rent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To investors: Shop now. The early movers get the best value, and Ukraine has a lot to offer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The material was prepared with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i>Other blogs of CES experts via the <\/i><a href=\"\/?cat_ID=114\"><i>link<\/i><\/a><i>.<\/i><br style=\"font-weight: 400;\" \/><br style=\"font-weight: 400;\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Monday in Verona pre-URC conference, I was invited to speak on a panel. The theme was on the role of private sector in strengthening services to citizens in Ukrainian regions \u2014 a topic that sits at the intersection of public policies, foreign investments, and wartime regional development. The moderator brought up something I\u2019d once [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34106,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[149,200],"tags":[568,599],"experts":[172],"news_type":[179],"class_list":["post-34105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogs-en","category-news-list-en","tag-business-and-investment-en","tag-international-support-en","experts-maria-repko","news_type-blog-type"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34105"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34105\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34108,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34105\/revisions\/34108"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34105"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=34105"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=34105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}