{"id":35442,"date":"2025-07-18T11:01:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T08:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=35442"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:35:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T13:35:21","slug":"economic-review-in-july-2025-what-is-happening-with-the-ukrainian-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economic-review-in-july-2025-what-is-happening-with-the-ukrainian-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic review in July 2025. What is happening with the Ukrainian budget?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vzWHJcf04dQ?si=67T3fAqdbLFDbZNS\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\nSince March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0The special topic of the July review is: \u00ab<strong>What is happening with the Ukrainian budget? Deficit, partner assistance, budget declaration<\/strong><strong>\u00bb.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All previous reviews can be found under the <a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in July:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong><span class=\"s2\">Monetary, FX, and banking sectors: <\/span><\/strong>Inflation falls to 14.3%, key policy rate remains steady at 15.5%. The return of inflation to the decline in the summer was expected, due to last year&#8217;s high base for comparing administratively regulated prices. Reserves up, Hryvnia stable to Dollar but weaker to Euro.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong><span class=\"s2\">Sectoral analysis: <\/span><\/strong>GDP increased by 0.9% in Q1 2025 \u2014 Ukraine\u2019s economy is idling, with no engine of growth to move I forward. Monthly electricity exports exceed imports for the first time since 2022, with the surplus driven by good weather and lack of large-scale Russian energy attacks. Ukraine secured better DCFTA terms on June 30. Meanwhile, grain exports have dropped to their lowest level since 2022.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong><span class=\"s3\">Foreign trade: <\/span><\/strong><span class=\"s4\">Ukrainian exports are weaker than last year with lower agricultural exports of grains and oilseeds, while <\/span>imports driven by defence, energy, and fertilizers are stronger than last year. Export volumes are falling, but favourable prices soften the blow: price increases partly offset the sharp decline in export volumes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong><span class=\"s2\">Fiscal sector: <\/span><\/strong>Changes to budget for 2025 bring +UAH 412 bn war expenditures, that will be covered by domestic borrowings and overperformance of revenues. In 5m of 2025, revenues are already higher than in 5m of 2024, and defence aid is still being provided. Total expenditures on war are 43% higher than last year, along with increase in debt service. The first half of 2025 has seen increasing financing needs, despite a projected full-year trajectory of gradual deficit-to-GDP reduction. As grant support declines, importance of fiscal planning decreases.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>See our report below for further details.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Invited speakers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Olena Bilan<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">, Chief Economist at Dragon Capital.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Gavin Gray<\/span><\/b><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">,\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">IMF Mission Chief for Ukraine<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Roksolana Pidlasa<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">, The Chairperson of the Committee on Budget<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0at<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Olga Zykova<\/b>, Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Moderator:\u00a0<strong>Hlib Vyshlinsky<\/strong>, Executive Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0The special topic of the July review is: \u00abWhat is happening with the Ukrainian budget? Deficit, partner assistance, budget declaration\u00bb. All previous reviews can be found under the link. Key changes in the Ukrainian [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":35253,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[492,200],"tags":[546,610,696],"experts":[462,527,505,642,478],"news_type":[138,140],"class_list":["post-35442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-during-the-war-en","category-news-list-en","tag-budget-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-monthly-economic-reviews","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","experts-yeleazar-levchenko","experts-oleksandra-myronenko","experts-bohdan-slutskyi","experts-mariia-tomilina","news_type-press-release","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35442"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36131,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35442\/revisions\/36131"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35442"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=35442"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=35442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}