{"id":37246,"date":"2025-09-26T13:18:21","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T10:18:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=37246"},"modified":"2025-09-26T13:24:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T10:24:47","slug":"economy_migration_gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economy_migration_gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"The shifting limits of the economy, the role of the defence industry and migration, and new GDP forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

On September 18, we held an event<\/a> dedicated to reviewing the economy over the past month with a special theme: has Ukraine\u2019s economy reached its limit? Below are key quotes from the speakers.<\/p>\n

Natalia Horshkova<\/strong>, Head of Department for Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThere is no static ceiling in the economy \u2014 it is dynamic. In market economies, the ceiling usually moves upward thanks to capital growth, improved working conditions, and productivity. In Ukraine, during the war, it is pressured by the destruction of infrastructure and enterprises, as well as population decline due to migration and losses. That means the ceiling can also move downward.<\/p>\n

Despite this, even in government and expert forecasts, economic growth is expected. This is the result of shifting the economy onto a wartime footing. Government forecasts have not worsened: growth of 2.7% for 2025 remains. This means that bottom-up pressure (from investment and recovery) outweighs top-down pressure (from destruction).<\/p>\n

Even without full reporting, the State Statistics Service recorded high growth rates in machinery and defence-related industries. The data may be revised, but the trend is clear.<\/p>\n

The \u201c5-7-9\u201d program, reconstruction grants, and \u201cMade in Ukraine\u201d are assessed as stimulating both demand and supply. In 2024, they added about +0.64 percentage points to GDP growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Sergiy Nikolaychuk, <\/strong>First Deputy Governor, National Bank of Ukraine:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cI don\u2019t like the comparison with a ceiling. Potential GDP can rise or fall, as in 2022 due to the invasion. In the concept of monetary policy, to \u2018break through the ceiling\u2019 means overheating the economy, with high inflation and imbalances.<\/p>\n

We see a balance of two forces: destruction, migration, and demographic decline on the one hand, and international support and technological progress on the other. This currently makes potential GDP growth modest.<\/p>\n

The main potential lies in normalising the economy, European integration, and structural and financial reforms. The NBU\u2019s forecast for 2026 is 2.3%. We should not sacrifice inflation targets for an extra 0.1%, as artificial stimulus always ends with sharp corrections or crises.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Kyrylo Kryvolap<\/strong>, Executive Director at Centre for Economic Recovery:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIf earlier the government created only framework mechanisms \u2014 such as the Ukraine Facility to mobilise finances for survival \u2014 then after London and Berlin, specific investment attraction programs appeared. This week, we saw a visit from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the expansion of the Ukrainian-American Fund, and World Bank procurement for the Project Preparation Facility. A National Investment Council has been established.<\/p>\n

The effectiveness of interceptor drones affects macro-stability no less than DFC guarantees. Russian strikes even on plants in Zakarpattia do not inspire optimism, but despite this, investments are happening: factories are opening, processing is developing, the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) is working, and there is access to the European market.<\/p>\n

Some losses were caused by people leaving and consumption falling.<\/p>\n

We can reasonably argue that such catalyst programs as yeOselia, yeVidnovlennia, grants, and COVID certificates, together with cost reductions through full digitalisation, can add +13% to Ukraine\u2019s GDP over the next 10 years.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You can listen to the event and view the CES experts\u2019 economic review presentation via the link<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On September 18, we held an event dedicated to reviewing the economy over the past month with a special theme: has Ukraine\u2019s economy reached its limit? Below are key quotes from the speakers. Natalia Horshkova, Head of Department for Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine: \u201cThere is no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37244,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[200],"tags":[],"experts":[],"news_type":[138],"class_list":["post-37246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-list-en","news_type-press-release"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37246"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37256,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37246\/revisions\/37256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37244"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37246"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=37246"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=37246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}