{"id":38532,"date":"2025-11-20T12:52:27","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T09:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=38532"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:34:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T13:34:41","slug":"economic-review-in-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/economic-review-in-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic review in November 2025. How this year\u2019s harvest will affect Ukraine\u2019s economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Xf6kHZqUe9U?si=RZHdm3PTdwjH-xR5\" width=\"760\" height=\"415\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>We prepared key points from the discussion via the <a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/harvest-2025-war-climate-change-and-eu-rules\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0The special topic of the November review is: <strong>\u00abHow this year\u2019s harvest will affect Ukraine\u2019s economy?\u00bb.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All previous reviews can be found under the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/category\/research-list-en\/economy-during-the-war-en\/\">link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in November:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Monetary sector: <\/b>Inflation fell to 10.9%, driven by disinflationary trend. Food inflation eases, vegetable prices deflate. At the same time, fundamental price pressures persist, inflation expectations above 10%. NBU by its October decision decided to delay the interest rate cut cycle in face of pro-inflation risks and uncertainty related to energy and budget deficits.<\/li>\n<li><b>International trade: <\/b>Trade deficit grows, driven by increased good imports (+31.8% y-o-y in September) and decreased services imports (-5% y-o-y). Goods imports grow due to persistent demand for war-related equipment and energy. Exports remain fragile, under war-related pressure.<\/li>\n<li><b>Sectoral analysis: <\/b>The energy situation deteriorated further and led to essential electricity import in October-November. However, business and consumer expectation slightly improved in October amid steady consumer demand.<\/li>\n<li><b>Fiscal sector: <\/b>Revenues in October are the lowest in four months. The state budget received UAH 142 bn of taxes, 3% less than in September. Expenses decreased by 13% in September mostly due to decrease in war expenditures.<\/li>\n<li><b>Special topic: <\/b>This year&#8217;s harvest is expected to be good, with grains and legumes production estimated at around 60 mt. However, the agricultural sector has faced several challenges in recent years: losses and destruction during the full-scale war as well as reduced yields due to droughts. Ukraine&#8217;s accession to the EU will require significant effort to align with European standards and rules. However, it will also open up free access to the large EU market and funds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b><span data-scheme-color=\"@1E1E1E,,\" data-usefontface=\"true\" data-contrast=\"none\">See our report below for further details.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Panelists:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Natalia Kolesnichenko<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, Senior Economist at CES;<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"&quot;IBM Plex Serif&quot;,serif\" data-listid=\"5\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559683&quot;:0,&quot;335559684&quot;:-2,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;\\&quot;IBM Plex Serif\\&quot;,serif&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Tetiana Adamenko,<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0Head of the Department of Agrometeorology, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"&quot;IBM Plex Serif&quot;,serif\" data-listid=\"5\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559683&quot;:0,&quot;335559684&quot;:-2,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;\\&quot;IBM Plex Serif\\&quot;,serif&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Taras Vysotskyi,\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"&quot;IBM Plex Serif&quot;,serif\" data-listid=\"5\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559683&quot;:0,&quot;335559684&quot;:-2,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;\\&quot;IBM Plex Serif\\&quot;,serif&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Alex Lissitsa<\/strong>, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IMC and President of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB).<\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"&quot;IBM Plex Serif&quot;,serif\" data-listid=\"5\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559683&quot;:0,&quot;335559684&quot;:-2,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;\\&quot;IBM Plex Serif\\&quot;,serif&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iana Okhrimenko,\u00a0<\/span><\/b>S<span data-contrast=\"auto\">enior Economist at CES.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"&quot;IBM Plex Serif&quot;,serif\" data-listid=\"5\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559683&quot;:0,&quot;335559684&quot;:-2,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;\\&quot;IBM Plex Serif\\&quot;,serif&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Oleksii Pavlenko,<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0Advisor to the CEO of Nibulon.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559991&quot;:360}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Moderator:\u00a0<strong>Maria Repko<\/strong><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, Deputy Executive Director, Centre for Economic Strategy.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559738&quot;:240,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>This event has been funded by UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government\u2019s official policies.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff\ufeff We prepared key points from the discussion via the link. Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine\u2019s economy during a full-scale war. \u00a0The special topic of the November review is: \u00abHow this year\u2019s harvest will affect Ukraine\u2019s economy?\u00bb. All previous reviews can be found under [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38384,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[197,492],"tags":[597,610,696],"experts":[462,662,527,505],"news_type":[138,140],"class_list":["post-38532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-list-en","category-economy-during-the-war-en","tag-agricultural-complex-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-monthly-economic-reviews","experts-maksym-samoiliuk-en","experts-nataliia_kolesnichenko-en","experts-yeleazar-levchenko","experts-oleksandra-myronenko","news_type-press-release","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38532"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38532\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38712,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38532\/revisions\/38712"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38532"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=38532"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=38532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}