{"id":39151,"date":"2025-12-16T18:50:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T15:50:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/?p=39151"},"modified":"2025-12-18T11:23:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T08:23:07","slug":"macroforecast-2026-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/macroforecast-2026-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s economy in 2026: forecasts by non-government experts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zfW6m70VwNc?si=pMe6iAhxf4CieFL-\" width=\"760\" height=\"415\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><em>Together with German Economic Team we approached leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams with a request to share their views on key macroeconomic indicators at the end of 2025 and 2026. <strong>Y<\/strong><\/em><em><strong>ou will find visualisations of the most important forecasts right here on this page;<\/strong> you can also download a presentation with more details.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In 2025, forecasts by non-government economists have deteriorated. The median expectation is <strong>2% GDP growth in 2025<\/strong> (down from a 2.25% consensus in July). This implies a slowdown from the actual 2.9% growth recorded in 2024. At the same time, nominal GDP is expected to finally exceed $200 bn.<\/p>\n<p>The inflation forecast for 2025 has improved compared with forecasters\u2019 expectations in July. As of December, private analysts expect <strong>inflation of 8.8% at year-end in 2025<\/strong>, or 12.9% average annual inflation.<\/p>\n<p>For 2026, the minimum growth forecast is 1%, while the maximum is 5% under a peace scenario and 2.6% if the war continues. It is difficult to assess what lies ahead amid ongoing attacks, the EU\u2019s inability to replace the US in supporting Ukraine, and pressure towards a peace agreement. Even so, median expectations are somewhat better than for 2025: <strong>GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 2.4%<\/strong>, inflation to slow, and the hryvnia\u2019s depreciation to be limited.<\/p>\n<p>If the war continues, the budget deficit of more than 20% of GDP in 2026 (excluding grants from revenues) will remain a major challenge for public finances. Analysts estimate <strong>Ukraine\u2019s external financing needs <\/strong>at around<strong>$45 bn in 2026<\/strong>, of which about $39 bn is expected to be covered by international partners.<\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864171\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864171\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864310\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864310\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864409\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864409\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864500\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864500\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864629\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864629\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<h3>Detailed forecast tables<\/h3>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-table\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26863522\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26863522\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"table visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-table\" data-src=\"visualisation\/26864077\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/26864077\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"table visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff Together with German Economic Team we approached leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams with a request to share their views on key macroeconomic indicators at the end of 2025 and 2026. You will find visualisations of the most important forecasts right here on this page; you can also download a presentation with more details. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":38852,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[197,175,176,200],"tags":[610,663],"experts":[172,527],"news_type":[138,140],"class_list":["post-39151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-list-en","category-press-releases","category-macroeconomics-en","category-news-list-en","tag-war-economy-en","tag-macroforecast-en-2","experts-maria-repko","experts-yeleazar-levchenko","news_type-press-release","news_type-researches"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39151"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39151\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39170,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39151\/revisions\/39170"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39151"},{"taxonomy":"experts","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/experts?post=39151"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=39151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}