Can baby bonuses boost birth rates by 2050?
Demographers are extremely alarmed by these figures and project that by 2050, only 25 million people will live in Ukraine. Currently, about 30 million citizens reside on the government-controlled territory, according to the Institute for Demography. A long-term forecast based on current trends indicates that Ukraine’s population will shrink to 15 million by 2100.
The government is trying to increase financial support for families with children, believing that money can address key issues related to the decision to have and raise a child.
On August 19, the Verkhovna Rada passed in its first reading a bill that increases cash payments to families in which a child is born. The main part of this decision is increasing the payment for a newborn child from 41,280 hryvnias to 50,000 hryvnias ($1,023 to $1,213).
The increase may be modest, but if previously the first tranche was 10,320 hryvnias ($250) and then 860 hryvnias ($21) monthly for three years, now the entire amount of 50,000 hryvnias ($1,213) will be paid out at once.
“Results of some studies show that families with children use consumer loans more often than other population groups, meaning they need additional funds. And such assistance is, of course, helpful for them,” says Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at the Center for Economic Strategy.
The bill also includes other components. Unemployed pregnant women will be able to receive 7,000 hryvnias ($170) monthly. One of the parents or a grandfather or grandmother who stays home with the child until the age of one will receive a monthly payment of 7,000 hryvnias. If both parents return to work after the child turns one, the family will also be entitled to up to 8,000 hryvnias ($194) per month under the “eNursery” program—this covers costs for kindergarten or a nanny until the child is three. But if one parent stays with the child after one year—for them the state will pay the Unified Social Contribution, so this time will count toward the pension record, but until the child reaches three years old.
“An important aspect is labor-related. The new measures provide payments that can be spent on child care assistance (for example, nanny services). This will allow moms to return to work sooner, which is very important for Ukraine right now. Labor shortages are among the main challenges Ukrainian businesses point to, and the government forecasts a shortage of workers at 4.5 million people in the medium term,” Ippolitova explains.
Currently, according to the Institute for Demography, Ukraine’s fertility rate is 0.8—meaning ten women give birth to eight children on average, though 22 children are needed to reproduce the population. This is not a unique situation for Ukraine: similar trends of reducing the number of children in families are visible in Europe and developed Asian countries.
The biggest drop in Ukraine’s birth rate occurred either against the backdrop of economic instability in the 1990s or due to the start of the war with Russia in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022. During Ukraine’s independence, birth rates grew during relatively calm and economically prosperous years from 2002 to 2012, CES explains.
In 2010-2013, Ukraine’s fertility rate was 1.5. Then, Ukrainians who are now 35-45 years old became parents. This is the largest demographic group in present-day Ukraine. Currently, according to the Institute for Demography, a woman becomes a mother for the first time on average at 28, a man a father at 30. And the 20-30 age group is the smallest in today’s Ukrainian demography. Accordingly, they can’t have many children because there are few of them.
“The decline in birth rates is not just a Ukrainian trend. A decrease in the fertility rate is also observed in European countries. The reasons lie in both sociocultural and economic spheres. On one hand, women more often get an education and seek to build careers, so they give birth later and to fewer children. On the other hand, having children significantly increases family expenses. In these conditions, good social support for families with children, availability of medicine, kindergartens, schools, and housing can play a certain role in increasing the number of children. However, the cost of such measures is significant, especially for a country at war,”says Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at CES.
Source: hromadske
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