The IMF and the Ministry of Economy see the economic future of Ukraine differently: what are the differences

In its updated macro forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the real GDP of Ukraine to grow by 3% in 2024, while the Ministry of Economy has set 2.7% in the draft budget for next year. Oleksandra Myronenko, an economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), said who is more optimistic about Ukraine’s economic future.

What are the differences between macro forecasts for Ukraine from the Ministry of Economy and the IMF

Ukraine’s GDP forecast:

• The IMF expects real GDP to grow by 3% in 2024, and by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2025;
• The Ministry of Economy forecasts growth at the level of 2.7% in 2025.

Inflation forecast:

• The IMF – 7,5% in 2025;
• The Ministry of Economy – 9,7% in 2025.

Exchange rate forecast:

• The IMF – 41 UAH/$ in 2024, 45 UAH/$ in 2025 and 49 UAH/$ in 2027;
• The Ministry of Economy – 40.7 UAH/$ in 2024, 45 UAH/$ in 2025 and 46.4 UAH/$ in 2027.

Salary forecast in Ukraine:

• The IMF expects more growth in real wages in 2024 – 10.2%, while less in 2025 – 7.5%;
• The Ministry of Economy – 8.5% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2025.

Forecast for the end of the war:

• The IMF expects the war to end in late 2025 or mid-2026 in a worst-case scenario;
• The Ministry of Economy predicts that hostilities will continue throughout 2025, so a large part of expenses (26.3% of GDP) will go to military needs.

As a reminder, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the growth rate was 3.7%.

Source: The Page.

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