Economic mobilization, dollar exchange rate, and higher taxes: the economic outlook for 2025.
What are the forecasts for price increases and the US dollar exchange rate? Can we expect an improvement or deterioration in living standards? Where is the safest place to invest money? Is there a chance that economic mobilization will be implemented? Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy, commented on some economic forecasts.
Taxes have increased. How will it affect the economic situation?
«There are currently many other factors that have a greater impact on the country’s economy – war, international aid, energy crisis, and labor shortages.
We expect that the tax increase will improve the financial situation of the Pension Fund. It may also contribute to the closure of “dormant” sole proprietorships. And it will have a moderate impact on the activities of others: some will pay more tax from a fixed income, while others will likely raise prices, shifting the burden onto consumers,» says Maria.
How can a tax increase affect employment?
«Sole proprietorships are increasingly being used as a way to optimize taxation, replacing traditional employment contracts. It is likely that attempts will be made to combat this mechanism in the near future, as it is a gray area well-known to both the government and international partners. If there is a mass migration of employees to sole proprietorships, the authorities may introduce policy measures to influence this process».
Is there a chance to make a military deferment?
«We advocate for the implementation of military deferment, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that considers the specific demographic circumstances of different regions, the operational requirements of businesses, and the manpower demands of the military, including a phased demobilization of those who have served since the outset of the full-scale invasion.
While acknowledging the complexities involved in designing an effective military deferment mechanism that meets all stakeholder needs, it is imperative to recognize that any solution will inevitably involve compromise. War is a multifaceted crisis that imposes significant burdens on all segments of society,» the expert states.
What can we do to boost the economy?
«Firstly, it is crucial to support the military, as war and its associated problems are the primary drivers of economic decline. This can involve manufacturing drones or communication systems for our army, developing AI tools for counter-propaganda, etc.
It is important to share knowledge and increase public awareness, especially among internally displaced persons. This includes the application of artificial intelligence, simple programming operations for professionals in other fields (purchasing, finance, analytics, SMM specialists). This might involve opening veteran courses, extracurricular programs for schoolchildren, or courses for IDPs.
Furthermore, by investing temporarily free funds not in foreign currency under the mattress, but at least in government bonds, one can help the government finance the budget deficit».
Source: DOU.
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