Economic review in December 2024. Results of the year

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  All notes can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in December:

• Macroeconomic trends: Economic recovery has slowed down with GDP growth of around 4% y-o-y expected for 2024. In 2024, business expectations peaked at their highest level since the start of the full-scale war but remained negative for most of the year.
• Monetary, FX, and Banking sector: inflation rose steadily as rates followed policy trend. Hryvnia depreciated amid rising FX demand. Still, international reserves increased to $43.8 bn. In 2024, there were steady deposit growth, increased government borrowing, and lending growth driven by economic recovery.
• Sectoral analysis: Ukraine lost 10 GW of electricity generating capacity due to the Russian attacks in 2024. Nevertheless, huge imports, quick repairs and outage schedules helped the energy system to survive. Steel production grew 22% in 2024 but is expected to fall in 2025 — lower global prices and coking coal shortage are the main challenges. Agricultural exports went up 20% in 2024 with maritime logistics ensuring stable exports of wheat and corn all year long. Export of goods reached $41.7 bn in 2024, and services exports in 11m grew 4% y-o-y to reach $15.6 bn.
• Fiscal sector: 2024 ends with strong budget revenues and tax revenues significantly outpace inflation. Ukraine received $41.6 bn of foreign budgetary financing in 2024, which covered 75% of additional needs.​

For further details explore the presentation.

Invited speaker: Andrii Teliupa, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine.

Moderator: Hlib Vyshlinsky, Executive Director of CES.