Economic review in June 2025. How has Russia’s invasion changed German-Ukrainian economic relations?

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  All notes can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in June:

• Monetary, FX, and banking sectors: Inflation hits 15.9%, key policy rate steady at 15.5%. Despite a May decline, Ukraine’s reserves remain sufficient, supported by a weaker dollar and a stronger euro.
• Fiscal sector: Every fourth Hryvnia of tax revenues in May was CPT: the state budget received ₴173 bn of taxes, adding 19% y-o-y. State budget expenditures decreased in April despite the increase in debt service.
• Sectoral analysis: Ukraine triples net electricity imports in May and the energy gap was filled thanks to steady power imports. Production of all major iron & steel products fell in May with both external and internal factors led to a decline in production and exports. Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) in Ukraine–EU trade expired on June 6. Now Ukraine is back to regular free trade regime with quotas for 40 agrarian categories. IT Exports grows for three consecutive months: $569 m of IT exports in April correspond to 4% growth, both m-o-m and y-o-y. Machinery accounts for 43% of trade between Ukraine and Germany.

See our report below for further details.

Invited speakers:

• Vitalii Ivaschuk, Economic Advisor at the Embassy of Ukraine in Berlin.
• Stefan Kägebein, Director, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Southern Caucasus, German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK).
• Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader of the German Economic Team. 
• Reiner Perau, CEO at the German Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce.

Moderator: Hlib Vyshlinsky, Executive Director of CES.  

Media partner — Ekonomichna Pravda.