How will attacks on the energy system affect the life in Ukraine in 2023?

It is not known how stable the Ukrainian energy system will be during the rest of the winter. Such uncertainty does not allow forecasting economic indicators not only for 2023, but even until the end of 2022.

According to Yurii Gaidai, Senior Economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy, further development of the Ukrainian economy will depend on how business sees its prospects for electricity supply.

This will determine whether the business will invest in autonomous generation or decide to wait until warmer weather, while temporarily restricting activities. The answers to these questions will be different for small, medium and large businesses, taking into account their financial capacity and needs.

Inflation: The NBU expects an additional 1-2% to the rate of price growth due to power outages.

Gaidai adds that it is impossible to predict exactly how blackouts will affect inflation. First of all, because the intensity of electricity consumption is different for each industry.

This will affect the ability of enterprises to cover part of their electricity needs with an alternative, and hence the costs of servicing alternative generation, which will affect the price.

In addition, outages will have a different impact on low-, middle- and high-income consumer groups. This will unevenly shape the demand for different groups of goods and their prices.

Interview for Ukrainian media Ekonomichna Pravda.