The new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: unraveling the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation

The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2023 – it expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 2.9% instead of 2% and inflation to slow down to 10.6% (previously expected to be 14.8%).

It was influenced by the results of the first two quarters of the year, which turned out to be better than the regulator had predicted.

However, the Ukrainian investment companies Dragon Capital and ICU have more optimistic forecasts of GDP growth – 4.5% and more than 5%, respectively.

We considered these and other forecasts more at the online event “The new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: unravelling the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation”.

Maria Repko, the deputy director of the CES, presented the consensus forecast of six leaders of Ukrainian and foreign analytical teams.

After that, we discussed why the forecasts are improving and outlined the risks that could change the course of events in the future.

Comments and overview of the institution’s forecasts:

• Natalia Gorshkova, Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economy;
• Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine;
• Vahram Stepanyan, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine.

Invited participants:

• Olena Bilan, Director of the Analytical Department at Dragon Capital investment company and member of the CES Supervisory Board;
• Oleksandra Betliy, Senior Expert at the Institute for Economic Research and Political Consultations;
• Oleksii Blinov, Chief Economist, Sense Bank;
• Evghenia Sleptsova, Senior Economist, Oxford Economics;
• Vitalii Vavryschuk, Head of the Macroeconomic Research Department, ICU.

This event is one of the activities within the Good Governance Fund project “Economic HUB: Sound PFM Policies and Vision for Growth,” which is supported by UK Aid from the UK Government. The project delivery partners are Abt Britain and Centre for Economic Strategy.