Ukraine’s Economy in 2026 and 2027: Forecasts by Independent Economists

We will publish the English version of the presentation on 6 August.

Together with the German Economic Team, we have asked leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams to share their outlook for Ukraine’s key macroeconomic indicators for 2026 and 2027. Read more in the presentation.

Independent economists expect slower GDP growth and higher inflation in 2026. The median forecast for real GDP growth is 1.1%, down from 2.4% projected in December 2025. This implies a slowdown in economic growth compared with the 1.8% recorded in 2025.

The inflation outlook for 2026 has also deteriorated compared with the expectations published in December 2025. Analysts forecast 9.6% year-end inflation, or 8.2% average annual inflation, compared with previous expectations of 6.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

The outlook for 2027 is more optimistic. The median GDP growth forecast stands at 2.2%, while the highest projection reaches 5%, assuming hostilities come to an end. Even so, inflation is expected to remain elevated, with the median forecast at 9% by the end of 2027.

The budget deficit is expected to narrow gradually over 2026–2027, reaching USD 43 billion and USD 39 billion, respectively. International financing is projected to be sufficient to cover Ukraine’s external financing needs, provided these do not increase because of an escalation in hostilities or the materialisation of other risks.

Most independent forecasts assume that the war will continue throughout both 2026 and 2027. Only one forecast—an alternative scenario—assumes that full-scale hostilities end in 2027. Under this scenario, GDP growth reaches 5%, inflation stands at 11%, and the budget deficit declines to USD 37 billion.

In contrast, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund assume a much earlier end to the war in their baseline scenarios—in 2027 and 2026, respectively. Under these assumptions, GDP growth is expected to be significantly stronger than under the prolonged-war scenario.

All independent analysts assume that Ukraine’s overland trade corridor with Europe will remain operational throughout 2026 and 2027. Nearly all forecasts expect the maritime corridor to operate only with limitations in 2026 due to large-scale Russian attacks, while most anticipate unrestricted shipping in 2027.