Ukraine’s resilience to crises: energy

This document includes a description of the main events and factors that determine Ukraine’s energy vulnerability in the short run (up to 1 year) – the heating season 2021/22 and preparations for the heating season 2022/23. It does not focus on long-term and systemic threats but may refer to them in the context of short-term risks and threats. The brief outlines the main possible risk scenarios and possible measures to reduce them and mitigate  consequences.

In our view, the most significant short-term risks are concentrated in the natural gas and electricity sectors. This does not negate or diminish the long-term risks in other areas, such as the security of supply of motor fuels (gasoline, diesel, LPG), predominantly imported from Belarus and Russia.

The Energy Security Strategy, approved by Cabinet of Ministers Decree No. 907-p of 4 August 2021, highlights the main threats to energy resilience.

An analysis prepared by an expert from the Centre for Economic Strategy and the opinions of panellists who participated in the forum “Ukraine’s Resilience to Crises: A Look into the Near Future” organised by the Centre for Economic Strategy on 8 December 2021 are presented in this brief.