Ukrainian refugees may be in Europe for good

The war may end on terms too dangerous to lure them home.

Three years into the war in Ukraine, the information centre for refugees in Krakow, in southern Poland, is doing brisk business. But things have changed. At the start of the war Ukrainians asked for help finding housing and work.

The European Union’s “temporary protection” scheme, which offers the bloc’s 4.3m Ukrainian refugees access to housing, employment and benefits, is due to expire next March. Europe will probably not imitate Donald Trump, who is considering revoking the status of Ukrainian refugees in America. But whether or not the eu’s programme is extended (for a second time), Ukrainians in exile are increasingly giving up on the idea of going home.

According to a recent study by the Centre for Economic Strategy, a Ukrainian research group, only 43% of the refugees worldwide plan on returning, versus 74% two years earlier. For many, what matters is not only when the war ends, but how. The growing prospect of a ceasefire without Ukrainian membership in nato or the eu, along with continued Russian occupation of a fifth of the country, does not inspire much confidence. Many Ukrainians fear Russia would attack again soon.

Ukrainian women, who form the bulk of the war refugees, were once widely expected to go home after the war. Today it is more plausible that an end to martial law would lead even more Ukrainians, especially men of military age who are currently barred from travel, to exit the country. The ces study says that over 500,000 men could leave. Because that would be catastrophic for Ukraine’s labour market, and for its capacity to defend itself, the country will hesitate to ease restrictions.

Source: The Economist.

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