Why Orban’s Defeat Won’t (Yet) Unblock EU’s €90 billion Ukraine Loan

Péter Magyar’s landslide victory over Viktor Orbán in Sunday’s Hungarian elections triggered a collective sigh of relief in Brussels – and in Kyiv.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Magyar suggested, but didn’t confirm, that he will lift Budapest’s veto on the loan. But he also expressed confusion about why the scheme is blocked in the first place, given that Hungary has received an opt-out that means it is not financially liable to repay the loan’s interest or principal.

Mounting optimism

Adding to this sense of overall optimism, Zelenskyy – who has previously suggested that Ukraine wouldn’t repair the pipeline at all – said last week that the repairs would be completed “this spring”.

But even if the loan is slightly delayed, EU officials – and, judging by his actions, Zelenskyy himself – do not believe this will significantly harm Ukraine’s economy.

Analysts also note that Kyiv could, in a worst-case scenario, print money or issue war bonds to its domestic banks in order to remain financially viable.

Maksym Samoiliuk, an economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy, a Kyiv-based think tank, believes that Kyiv could remain financially solvent until mid-July – well beyond the late April or early May period previously estimated by many analysts and officials.

This, he said, could be done by Kyiv spending money earmarked for the end of 2026 during the first half of the year. State-owned firms could also pay out dividends to the Ukrainian government earlier than planned, he added.

“Nevertheless,” Samoiliuk said, the loan “is still crucial going forward. Let’s hope that the news from Hungary brings us more reasonable Brussels-Budapest relations.”

Source: Kyivpost.

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