August Economic Review in 2026. How can Ukraine keep exporting?

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  The special topic of the August review is: «Ports under siege: How can Ukraine keep exporting?».

All previous reviews can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in August:

• Sectoral analysis: In July, peak summer heat was managed without power outages, the harvest was bountiful, and business and consumer sentiment improved. However, economic activity slowed in August due to a series of russian attacks on production capacity and logistics infrastructure, as well as port blockages and EU restrictions on steel exports.
• Monetary sector: Inflation in July 2026 reached 7.7% y-o-y, up from 7.2% in June, and 0.3% m-o-m. The key policy rate was increased to 15.5%. The new NBU forecast expects 10% inflation and 16% key policy rate by the end of 2026. Some currency restrictions targeting households were relaxed.
• Fiscal sector: In July 2026, tax revenue shortfalls erased the entire first-half surplus. Spending fell short of the plan due to insufficient borrowing and grants. With most EU aid earmarked for weapons and a UAH 108 bn military pay scheme left unfunded, an autumn budget revision is inevitable.
• Special topic: Blocked ports could result in a loss of 30 mln t of agrifood exports. Redirecting exports to alternative transport routes and providing government support for producers could partially mitigate these losses.

See our report below for further details.

This event has been funded by the UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.