July Economic Review in 2026. How is the Ukrainian economy recovering?

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  The special topic of the July review is: «From winter to winter: How is the Ukrainian economy recovering?».

All previous reviews can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in July:

• Monetary sector: Inflation in June 2026 reached 7.2% y-o-y, down from 8.2% in May, and fell by 0.2% m-o-m. Ukraine’s banks are in the middle of their longest, fastest lending boom in over 15 years. International reserves grew for the first time in months, supported by the EU and the World Bank.
• Fiscal sector: In H1 2026, government revenues rose by 35%, but this growth was driven primarily by an increase in international aid received. War needs are requiring an expanding amount of budgetary resources, and Ukraine is covering a growing share of these costs on its own. However, domestic revenues can cover only about half of total expenditures. That is why external financing is crucial, and the record inflow of funds in June is helping to bridge the budget gap.
• Sectoral analysis and special topic: The recovery in economic activity following a difficult winter is continuing. The energy situation is stable, consumer demand remains high, and yields for early crops exceed last year’s levels. However, the materialisation of several war-related risks is dampening the outlook for 2026 economic growth.

See our report below for further details.

This event has been funded by the UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.