September Economic Review in 2026. Ukraine’s Budget Is Short of Money Again

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  The special topic of the September review is: «Ukraine’s Budget Is Short of Money Again: What Can Be Done?».

All previous reviews can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in September:

• Sectoral analysis: In August-September, economic activity struggled due to blocked ports, intensified shelling, and further losses to production capacities, as well as to the logistics and transport infrastructure. However, the negative impact was partly offset by a stable energy situation, a high harvest and reoriented exports through alternative routes.
• Monetary sector: Inflation in August 2026 reached 8.1% y-o-y, up from 7.7% in June, and 0.1% m-o-m. In response, the key policy rate was increased to 16%. International reserves declined 5% in August due to lower international financing.
• Fiscal sector / Special topic: Budget situation is extremely challenging. War costs are up a third, revenue is missing, international in-kind aid is cut in half. By the end of the year, $56.5 billion must be brought in, out of which $29.5 bn is covered if commitments are met, and “$27 bn” for war needs to be found. There could be three scenarios, from “fully covered” to a $56.5 billion hole in 2026, and the situation is no better for 2027.

See our report below for further details.

This event has been funded by the UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.