Demographics in Wartime: A Major Threat to Ukraine

The population of Ukraine is steadily declining – and the war has only accelerated this decades-long trend. Even EU accession is unlikely to halt this development.

Gloomy Forecast 

The Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), an independent Ukrainian research centre in Kyiv, published its fifth report on Ukrainian refugees in early 2026. According to the report, 5.6 million Ukrainians were living abroad at that time. Four million of them had left the country via the western borders.

Migration as the Main Reason

“Even four years after the start of the large-scale invasion, Ukraine continues to lose population,” confirms Iryna Ippolitova, a senior researcher at the CES. “The main reason for this is migration. According to estimates, around 300,000 people left Ukraine in 2025 alone.”

Added to this are losses among soldiers and civilians, as well as the falling birth rate. 

At the end of August 2025, the Ukrainian government relaxed exit regulations for men aged between 18 and 22 and allowed older men living abroad to make temporary return visits. Until then, martial law in force since 2022 had largely prohibited men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country. The aim was to ensure sufficient recruits were available for the army.

According to CES data, around 96,000 men left the country between August and November 2025. “Around one in seven young men aged between 18 and 22 has left Ukraine since August,” the report states. 

The CES estimates that between 1.3 and 2.2 million people could return to Ukraine once the war ends – depending on the scenario.

Comparisons of Living Conditions

Many Ukrainians fear that, in the event of a frozen conflict, Russia could attack again in a few years.

Of the Ukrainians abroad, 66 per cent are of working age. More than half of the refugees are under 35 – precisely the generation that will have to sustain the country in the future. At the same time, according to the CES, it is precisely this group that is least willing to return.

Young People Are Less Likely to Return

“We are currently seeing that people under 35 are significantly less likely to want to return than older Ukrainians, particularly those over 50,” explains Ippolitova.

The reasons cited are better integration abroad, career prospects and, above all, security concerns.

“Many refugees will only consider returning once the war has actually ended completely and civilian flights to Ukraine are possible again. A frozen conflict would significantly reduce people’s willingness to return.”

Prophetic Satire

“It is difficult to predict the impact of EU accession with any certainty,” says Ippolitova. “The experience of Central and Eastern European countries shows that, initially, more people might emigrate because they are allowed to work legally in the EU.”

At the same time, however, the free movement of people could also encourage return migration and allow people to work abroad while continuing to live partly in Ukraine. 

For Ippolitova, EU accession nevertheless offers significant advantages – both for Ukraine and for the European Union. These include access to the European single market, support programmes, stronger workers’ rights, better environmental standards and institutional stability.

Source: DerStandard.

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