Economic review in April 2024. How is the economy of Kharkiv transforming?

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found under the link.

Executive summary:

• Special topic. Kharkiv faces urgent need for bolstered air defense to safeguard critical infrastructure, restore business activity, and protect its populace, amid mounting concerns over a potential new Russian advance from the region’s north.
• Macroeconomic trends: In 2024, Ukraine GDP will increase by 3.0% y-o-y according to a forecast published by the NBU — a deterioration from the previous forecast (3.6% y-o-y in 2024). Business expectations continued to be positive in April, despite Russian shelling of energy infrastructure
• Sectoral analysis: Russian missile attacks put Ukraine’s energy system on the brink of survival. Steel production, agricultural exports hit wartime highs; IT services exports recovered after seasonal decline.
• Monetary, FX, and Banking sector: Inflation remained stable in April at 3.2%, and key rate policy was decreased. International reserves remained at high level, while hryvnia continued to devaluate. March was marked by slow deposits and loans growth and optimistic forecasts.
• Fiscal sector: In April, Ukraine received $1.7 bn of foreign financing, an expected drop after a record-high amount in March. March expenses continued to rebound on stronger external financing; in April, all tax revenues (except for CIT, which is paid on a quarterly basis) increased.

You can also access the visualization of monthly highlights through our regularly updated Ukraine War Economy Tracker.