Economic review in May 2024. Summary of the Ukraine Recovery Conference

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found under the link.

Executive summary:

• Macroeconomic trends: In 2024, Ukraine GDP will increase by 3.0% y-o-y according to a forecast published by the NBU; forecasts by other organizations are a bit more positive. Business expectations fell in May as businesses are feeling the effects of the energy crisis and are uncertain about mobilization.
• Sectoral analysis: Russia’s missile attacks have caused a huge electricity shortage with rolling blackouts reintroduced. Steel production reaches 40% of pre-war volumes and grain exports are down 12% in May after setting wartime records in April.
• Monetary, FX, and Banking sector: Inflation remains stable – 3.3%, and key rate policy was decreased once again to 13%. Hryvnia continues to devaluate, setting a record – 40.5 $/UAH; the international reserves decreased but remain quite high.
• Fiscal sector: Foreign budget aid dropped to $20 million in May, the lowest amount since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. State budget expenses in April decreased by 9.7% to UAH 314.3 bn. Tax revenues of the state budget in April reached UAH 151.8 bn (+38% YoY, +29% MoM)

The recording of discussion:

Invited speakers:

• Volodymyr Kuzio, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine.
• Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the CES.
• Oleksii Sobolev, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine for digital development, digital transformatioms and digitalization.
•  Robert Kirchner, Deputy Head of the German Economic Team,  Authorized Representative of the Berlin Economics.

You can also access the visualization of monthly highlights through our regularly updated Ukraine War Economy Tracker.