Fewer Ukrainian refugees plan to return from abroad

We have already conducted three waves of research on the status and attitudes of Ukrainian refugees and the impact of their non-return on the Ukrainian economy. In particular, we see significant negative changes in the share of Ukrainians who plan to return.

Thus, while in November 2022, 50% of respondents definitely planned to return, in May 2023, the number was already 41%, and according to the survey in January 2024, only 26% of such people did.

There has also been a significant increase in the number of our compatriots abroad whose income has returned to the level that ensured their daily consumption before leaving Ukraine. For the state, in the context of the return of migrants, “this is bad news”.

We estimate the number of refugees who will stay abroad in three scenarios: optimistic, medium and pessimistic. According to our calculations, out of the 3.6 million Ukrainians who are currently living in democratic countries, 1.4 million Ukrainians will remain there after the war ends in the optimistic scenario, 2 million in the medium scenario, and 2.3 million in the pessimistic scenario.

In our opinion, introducing a model of maximum facilitation of movement between Ukraine and the host country is one of the most realistic solutions. But to create opportunities for circular migration, so that Ukrainians are not afraid to travel home and back to Europe, legal solutions are needed. And Ukraine’s efforts should be directed towards this.

Origin: Ukrinform.