Economic review in January 2024. How to ease pressure on Ukrainian entrepreneurs?
Economy during the war
| 13 February 2024
Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found under the link.
Executive summary:
- Special topic: Business is outraged by the growing pressure from the state. The government promises to halt all “masquerade shows”, breaks its promise a couple of weeks later.
- Macroeconomic trends: GDP grew by 5.7% in 2023, but the recovery will slow down in 2024 and further. Business confidence, as well as consumer confidence, is waning.
- Sectoral analysis: Ukrainian agricultural exports are high thanks to the Sea corridor and attribute to record-high overall exports. Ukraine energy system is stable, as well as ferrous production – albeit far from pre-war levels.
- Monetary and FX sector: Inflation slows down even further; international reserves are high, and the key rate is stable.
- Banking sector: Banks are faring rather well, with liquidity on its highest level, lending rates demonstrating downward trend, and loans and deposits on the rise.
- Fiscal sector: With only $0.4 bn of foreign financing in January, Ukraine had to postpone its budget expenditures to survive the month.
Watch the discussion here.
You can also access the visualization of monthly highlights through our regularly updated Ukraine War Economy Tracker.
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