How the economy of Ukraine will develop in 2023

Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector towards the end of the year, putting even more strain on the economy.

Ukraine’s partners are well aware that the need for financial assistance may increase. The IMF does not rule out that at least USD 1 billion per month will be needed additionally. However, experts hope that the deficit will be covered.

“As for the budget deficit, it is difficult to assess the impact on the economy (attacks on energy facilities – ed.). But if there is no prolonged blackout in large cities with heating shutdown for several months, the impact will be moderate.”

In extreme cases, the NBU will print a couple of tens of billions of hryvnias per month – we see from the experience of 2022 that this is not a problem. But, of course, it is better to get additional external money,” said Hlib Vyshlinsky, Executive Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES).

In addition, inflation may increase slightly, Vyshlinsky believes. “The inflation rate will increase due to rising costs, the hryvnia may weaken slightly due to reduced exports,” he suggests.

Interview for Ukrainian media RBC-Ukraine.