Ukraine’s Economic Review: 2025

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. The January special focuses on the major changes in Ukraine’s economy over the course of 2025.

All previous reviews can be found under the link.

Executive summary:

• Real GDP growth slowed to ~2% in 2025 due to security risks, infrastructure and capacity losses, electricity shortages, and labour constraints; demand remained strong but was largely met by imports.
• Inflation ended 2025 at 8.0% y-o-y, below all forecasts.
• FX reserves hit a record $57.3 bn, covering nearly 6 months of imports.
• The trade deficit deepened as imports rose to $84.8 bn (more than 2x exports), driven by energy and defence needs.
• Refugee outflows slowed in 2025 to 0.3 million people, but liberalised travel led to a notable exit of young men aged 18–22.
• State budget revenues grew by 21% nominally in 2025 but remained insufficient; international financial support reached a record $52.4 bn which covered 95% of deficit.

See our attached presentation for further details.