Up to 3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. How to return them to Ukraine?
According to the UN, as of July 4, 2023, the number of registered Ukrainian refugees worldwide reached 6.33 million. Ukrainian sociologists estimate the figure to be between 4 million and 7 million due to some individuals having already returned.
Including those who moved or were deported to Russia and Belarus, the total number of migrants is 8-9 million.
The Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) highlights the most significant loss of human capital in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, from which a quarter of the population has left. Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv rank second, losing a fifth of their people. Kharkiv (17%), Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts (16%) share the third position.
As part of the “Refugees from Ukraine: intentions to return, impact on the Ukrainian Economy, and State Policy Recommendations” project, CES identifies four groups of migrants.
The first group (25%) consists of classical refugees, primarily middle-aged women with children who migrated to Poland.
The second group (29%) includes quasi-labor migrants who left the country not only due to the war but also for work purposes.
The third group (29%) comprises professionals who predominantly work in their field of expertise and are less willing to work outside of it.
The fourth group (16%) consists of individuals from the conflict zone who have suffered the most from the war.
Experts from CES view refugees from the conflict zone as less adaptable to life abroad and less sure about returning to Ukraine.
People in this group express the highest willingness to return to a different region of Ukraine if returning to their hometown is impossible. However, their decision to return to Ukraine as a whole and relocate to a safer area depends on the conditions offered, such as the possibility of finding well-paying jobs and accessing free or subsidized housing.
“People will return if they have a place to return to, “emphasises Executive Director of CES Hlib Vyshlinsky. – Refugees from the conflict zone and temporarily occupied territories have nowhere to return. Rebuilding housing in relatively safe cities like Bucha is the first step that Ukrainian authorities and international partners can take to encourage the return of Ukrainians.”
Who are “classical refugees”?
According to CES research, classical refugees are predominantly middle-aged women with children. Before the war, these individuals lived outside the conflict zone but were affected by missile attacks, mainly in the centre and western Ukraine and the Odesa Oblast.
Most of them reside in major cities in Poland and the Czech Republic due to their geographic proximity to Ukraine.
“They are people with children who fear returning to Ukraine for security reasons. Getting the maximum amount of weapons from international partners will solve the return issue for many,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky.
The study indicates that “quasi-labour” refugees have a higher income level than classical refugees. They are also the most satisfied with state services in other countries.
“The return of quasi-labor migrants will depend on how well they can realise themselves in the countries they travelled to. It will also be influenced by the EU’s decision on the free labour movement between Ukraine and the EU after the temporary protection regime ends. Additionally, how economic policies will be implemented in Ukraine does also matter,” explains Hlib Vyshlinsky.
Material in Ukrainian from Business Censor.