Wartime demographics: a big threat for Ukraine
In a world that is already depopulating, the situation in Ukraine is particularly acute. The country faces a dual crisis: its population has been declining for over thirty years, and the Russian invasion has only accelerated this trend. Safeguarding a country’s demographics and its future during wartime is a dilemma with no easy solutions – and EU accession might not suffice to invert the trend.
How many Ukrainians are refugees living abroad?
The Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) is an independent Ukrainian non-governmental research centre founded in Kyiv in 2025. According to the centre’s fifth report on refugees, at the start of 2026, 5.6 million Ukrainians were refugees living abroad. Of these, 4 million left Ukraine via the western borders.
“Ukraine continues to lose population after four years of the full-scale invasion,” confirms Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at the CES.
“The main reason for demographic losses is migration. According to estimates by the CES, about 300,000 people left Ukraine in 2025. In addition, the population is declining due to losses among both military personnel and civilians caused by the war, as well as due to falling birth rates”.
According to data from the CES, approximately 96,000 men emigrated between August and November 2025.
How many will return?
The CES estimates that between 1.3 and 2.2 million people could return to Ukraine once the war ends, depending on the scenario.
Of Ukrainian citizens abroad, 66% are of working age (18–65). Young people (those under 35) account for more than half of Ukrainian refugees (56%). They are the country’s lifeblood. However, according to CES data, they are also the demographic segment that will be less inclined to return.
“Currently,” explains Iryna Ippolitova of the CES, “we see that young people under 35 are much less likely to return to Ukraine than older people, especially those over 50. There are many reasons for this. These include better integration in host countries, economic factors such as jobs and salaries, and most importantly, security risks. The return of these people is possible under certain conditions. First, there must be security and an end to the war. The way in which the war ends is also important for this generation: most refugees consider returning only if the war fully ends and civilian flights resume in Ukraine. A frozen conflict would have a much smaller impact on refugees’ willingness to return.”
Would EU membership change the trend?
“It is still difficult to clearly predict the effects of Ukraine joining the EU,” says Iryna Ippolitova of the CES. “The experience of Central European countries suggests that some people may leave, as they will gain the opportunity to work legally in the EU”. However, freedom of movement may also “encourage some migrants to return and support circular migration among Ukrainians who currently do not consider returning because they are afraid of losing their right to work and live in the EU”. At the same time, Ippolitova adds, “Ukraine could attract professionals from the EU during the reconstruction phase”.
For Ippolitova, “Ukraine’s accession to the EU offers substantial benefits for both Ukraine and the European Union, despite the challenges that such integration inevitably entails”. For Ukraine, the process will guarantee the “access to the EU single market, funding instruments, and programmes”, Ukraine also will be able to benefit from “stronger worker protections, safer products and services, and improved environmental regulation”, Ippolitova adds.
The more secure a country feels – socially, economically and militarily – the more its inhabitants will be able to envisage a future. In terms of security, which is a central question for Ukraine, “EU membership would strengthen Ukraine’s economic and institutional resilience and deepen its integration into European security frameworks”. At the same time, Ukraine “contributes significantly to European security through its defence capacity, strategic position, and experience in countering external threats”.
Source: Voxeurop.
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