Will Ukrainian refugees return back to Ukraine?

According to the UN, as of the end of June, one-third of Ukrainians had been displaced by war – it is by far the most migratory crisis in the world today.

More than 7 million are Ukrainians who left their homes but stayed in Ukraine.

Another about 5.5 million ended up in Europe, of which 3.6 million received temporary protection in one European country or another.

A survey released in July by UNHCR and the UN Refugee Agency in six European countries shows that most refugees from Ukraine hope to return home as soon as possible, but 65% plan to stay abroad until the war and security situation improves.

“Most people, of course, make their decision based on whether or not a missile will fall on my child’s head,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director of the Centre for Economic Strategy.

It is also important that people have a physical place to go back to. So much will also depend on how quickly the destroyed housing can be rebuilt. 

“And there is a big problem because both the state and local budgets are in a difficult state right now,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky.

The economist notes that even though the authorities claim to restore infrastructure, they are talking primarily about critical infrastructure. 

And it is not certain that even the critical infrastructure needed to start the heating season can be rebuilt. Then there is the issue of financing the reconstruction of private houses and even more difficult apartment buildings”.

At the same time, one must be aware, says Hlib Vyshlinsky, that “there is no money in the budget for this, and donors are talking about big plans to rebuild after the war.”

 “For those (women with children) who have lost their home, the option of returning to Ukraine can only be considered when either there are very good earning opportunities in Ukraine – significantly better than in the countries where they are now, or if a man finds a good job in Ukraine and it is possible to return to another region of Ukraine,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky.

An additional condition for the return of women with children – and this is the largest category of internal and external migrants both in Ukraine and abroad – is that kindergartens and schools function.

“Otherwise, they simply cannot work if they worked before and if they have no other source of income,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky.

Therefore, apart from where to live, the decision to return home will also depend on whether there is something to live for. But the data on the labour market is also disappointing.

In order to economically boost the recovery of industry, jobs and the economy, money and markets are needed, says Hlib Vyshlinsky. 

“Theoretically, if the military risk insurance is given to us, plants will be built here, for example, for food, and this will be exported to European markets,” the economist suggests, but then returns to the security factor that no one will build anything if a Russian missile hits there at any time.

“If security risks continue for a long time, there will be a systemic problem with people who are now abroad finding good jobs, adapting to the local environment and simply not returning to Ukraine. And then men will join them. This will be a long-term and irreversible loss of citizens as consumers – it will reduce the market volume,” says Hlib Vyshlinsky about the next wave of migration and its consequences.

And he adds: “When we talk about returns, we are talking about returns in terms of people and consumption taxes.”

The full article was published in Ukrainian in BBC Ukraine.