Economic review in February 2024. What is the future of Ukraine’s foreign trade?

Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. All notes can be found under the link.

Executive summary:

• Special topic: We overview the key figures of Ukrainian foreign trade in January and February. Share of Chinese imports increased to 21.7% in January, twice the average for 2023. In January, drones are in  top-10 imported goods.
• Sectoral analysis: Businesses improved their outlook after four months of negativity. Ukraine’s exports of grains and oilseeds reached a two-year record high thanks to the Ukrainian Sea Corridor, and electricity exports are increasing.
• Monetary and FX sector: Inflation slows down even further; rates are stable; international reserves decreased slightly. Hryvnia is on downward course, reaching record-lows.
• Banking sector: January, as expected, showed a seasonal decline in deposit taking, but the situation improved in February. The situation with loans remains relatively stable – they are slowly growing, but 5-7-9 remains one of the key drivers of lending.
• Fiscal sector: Foreign financing remains rather low with only $0.8 bn disbursed in February. Nevertheless, Ukraine had to increase its expenditures after forced cuts in January.

The recording of discussion is available here.

You can also access the visualization of monthly highlights through our regularly updated Ukraine War Economy Tracker.