Ukrainian refugees. Future abroad and plans for return. The third wave of the research

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Since 2022, CES experts have been studying the situation and attitudes of Ukrainian refugees and the impact of their non-return on the Ukrainian economy. Over this time, we have released the first and second waves of research on the number of Ukrainian refugees, how they live abroad, and what is needed to bring them back.

According to our estimates, as of the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians are living abroad because of the war. The overwhelming majority of refugees are women (the largest share is women aged 35-44 – 13%) and children.

As of January 2024, the largest share of Ukrainian refugees in Europe is in Germany (30%) and Poland (22%). Outside of Europe, the largest countries in terms of the number of Ukrainians accepted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion are the United States (280,000), the United Kingdom (253,200) and Canada (210,200).

The legal status of Ukrainian refugees in Europe and beyond: many countries are gradually reducing spending on refugees and making conditions for them more stringent than at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

The future of temporary protection status: the best case scenario is to grant Ukrainians freedom of movement and choice of residence, similar to EU citizens.

According to our estimates, between 1.4 million and 2.3 million Ukrainians may remain outside Ukraine under various scenarios.

Key recommendations to encourage Ukrainians to return: cooperation with EU countries on the return of Ukrainians after the war; rapid post-war reconstruction of the affected regions; assistance to people from affected and occupied regions during reconstruction; development of public-private partnership; increasing resources for communication by compatriots abroad through diplomatic missions; simplifying the reintegration of children to study in Ukrainian schools and the admission of Ukrainian graduates of foreign schools to Ukrainian universities; providing Ukrainian refugees with the possibility of free movement and choice of places, similar to the rights of citizens of the European Union.

The research was conducted with support of the International Rennaissance Foundation.