Ukrainian refugees: how many are there, their intentions & return prospects. Second wave

In the final report of the project “Refugees from Ukraine: Intentions to Return, Impact on the Ukrainian Economy, and Policy Recommendations,” we have estimatedhow many Ukrainians have movedabroad since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, who these people are, how many of them will return to Ukraine, and what the economic consequences will be if not all of them return.

To accomplish this, we useddata from two waves of sociological surveys conducted by the research agency Info Sapiens in November-December 2022 and April-May 2023 commissionedof the Centre for Economic Strategy and information from open sources.

According to our calculations, as of the end of June 2023, 5.6- 6.7 million Ukrainians are abroad because of the war. This is 0.3-0.5 million more than the estimates presented in the preliminary version of this report(as of the end of 2022, their number was 5.3-6.2 million people).

This increase is a result of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructurein the winter of 2022-23, intensified missile strikes on Ukrainian cities in May, and the destructionof the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Station in early June 2023.

The majority of refugees are women, with the largest group being women aged 35-49 years, constituting around 18% of all refugees. Additionally, many refugees are children. According to data from the Eurostat, as of May 2023, the largest proportions of Ukrainian refugees are based in Germany (27%) and Poland (24%).

Many Ukrainian refugees haveexperienced a substantial decrease in their incomes since the full-scale invasion. Specifically, the percentage of refugees who had enough money for basic and expensive items has decreased from 27.8% before the war to 6% as of May 2023. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who only had enough for food hasincreased to 24.6% as of May 2023, which is 16.3 percentage points higher than before the war.

Further in the report, we considered the prospectsof Ukrainians returning from abroad. The analysis of the international experience has shown thatthe key factors in the return of refugees home after the conflict are security; availability of housing where theycould return; the opportunity to earn a living; comparison of general living conditions in their home country  and in their country of current residence.

According to the Info Sapiens survey commissioned by CES, the majority of Ukrainians (63%) currently residing abroad plan to return to Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether all of them will actually return.

The longer the war continues, the more Ukrainians may adapt to the life abroad. Additionally, some Ukrainians (6.8%) believe that the prospects for their children are better abroad. Furthermore, people who have fled from the war zone may not have a place to return to, so their return will depend on how quickly their regions are rebuilt or whether they receive support to relocate to the other regions of Ukraine.

Furthermore, we have conducted a regression analysis of factors correlated with the return of Ukrainian refugees. The results show that current employment status is a significant factor. Students in foreign educational institutions are less willingto return (68% less likely than respondents who are not students).

People who are not employed but actively seeking work are also less likely to be willing to return to Ukraine (45% less likely than those who are neither working nor seeking employment). This could be because these groups are doing more to adapt to live in the host country and they may think that they have better prospects in the host country than in Ukraine.. Moreover, income appeared to be significant: individuals with high income before the war are more willing to return, whereas those who currently have a high income are less willingto return.

Using cluster analysis, we have identified four groups of refugees. The first group (25% of all refugees) consists of classic refugees, mainly middle-aged women with children who fled to Poland. They are not welladapted to life abroad, as 41% of Ukrainians in this group had never been abroad before. Additionally, they predominantly lived  outside of the wart zone but were affected by missile strikes (Central and Western Ukraine, as well as the Odesa region). Consequently, the main reason why they leftthe country was their concern forsafety.

The second group (29% of all refugees) is quasi-labor migrants who left not only due to the war but also to find work abroad,. They are the most adapted to life abroad, with 25% of individuals in this group having prior work experience abroad. External factors, such as war and the policies in Ukraine, have the least influence on their decisions on whether to return to Ukraine.

The third group (29% of all refugees) consists of professionals, whoprimarily working in their field of specialisation, and who are less willing to work in other fields. Before the war, many of them often had their own businesses. This group is more loyal to Ukraine and is more likely to plan to return compared to others.

The fourth group (16% of all refugees) consists of people from the war zone who suffered the most from the war. Individuals in this clusterare the most willing to take steps to adapt abroad. At the same time, they are also the most willing to return to another region of Ukraine if it is not possible to return to their home region. Their decision on whether toreturn in the end will depend on whether there will be necessary conditions for their return.

According to our calculations, between 1.3 million and 3.3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad under various scenarios. This is 0.4-0.6 million more individuals than we estimated inDecember 2022. This change is theresult of the prolonged duration of warand the continued adaptation of refugees to life abroad. The non-return of Ukrainians will significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, which could lose between 2.7% and 6.9% of GDP annually.

At the end of the report, we propose recommendations that can incentivise Ukrainian refugees to return to Ukraine. These recommendations include:

• collaborating with EU countries to incentivze the return of Ukrainians after the war and facilitating swift post-war reconstruction of affected regions;
• providing assistance to individuals from the war zoneand occupied regions during the reconstruction phase and developing public-private partnerships;
• increasing resources for communication with Ukrainiansabroad through diplomatic missions;
• simplifying the reintegration of children into Ukrainian schools and facilitating the enrollment of Ukrainian graduates from foreign schools into Ukrainian higher education institutions;
• opening the EU labor market for Ukrainians after the war.

The research was conducted with support of the International Rennaissance Foundation.