Ukrainian refugees: who are they, where did they come from and how to return them, first wave

It is a presentation from our interim report as part of the project “Refugees from Ukraine: intentions to return, impact on the Ukrainian economy and recommendations for public policy”. The final report will be translated into English and published in the summer.

In this report, we have analyzed how many Ukrainians have gone abroad, who exactly they are, and what the conditions of their stay in Europe are. As of the end of 2022, there were 3.8–4.7 million Ukrainian refugees abroad (excluding russia and belarus), and there is a risk that another 100–200 thousand will leave by the end of the winter of 2022-23 due to energy supply problems.

Most Ukrainians living abroad are women (the largest share of women aged 35–49) and children. The most significant number of refugees left for Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Italy. Almost a quarter of all residents left Zaporizhia Oblast, and nearly a fifth left Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. A large part of the refugees lost a large amount of their income after the start of the war.

In the European Union, all Ukrainians have the right to receive temporary protected status. Although this status gives the right to residence, work, education and medicine in all EU countries, the living conditions of Ukrainians in different EU countries differ significantly, as some of them, such as Germany, provide substantial social benefits, and in others, such as but in Poland, such payments are low or absent at all.

After conducting a cluster analysis, we identified four groups of refugees and outlined their portraits. The first group is classic refugees: primarily middle-aged women with children who left for Poland. The second group is quasi-labour migrants who went abroad not only because of the war but also for work. The third group is professionals, who work in their speciality more often than other groups and are less willing to work outside of it. The fourth group is people from the combat zone: Ukrainians who suffered the most from the war.

In the second part of the report, we analyzed the prospects for the return of Ukrainians. First, a literature review on the situation with the return of refugees after wars in other countries was presented. The example of Bosnia, which, like Ukraine, is located in Europe, deserves special attention. After the war in Bosnia, many refugees remained abroad, so it is important to analyze their experiences to avoid making similar mistakes during the post-war reconstruction.

The next part analyzes the survey data on the return plans of Ukrainian migrants. Although most Ukrainians currently abroad say they plan to return and prefer life in Ukraine, we are still determining if all of them will return. There are many reasons for this.

First, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians will find work abroad and adapt to life there. Second, even if they like life in Ukraine more than living abroad, some Ukrainians believe that the prospects for their children are better abroad. Hence, they are ready to endure temporary inconveniences for their children’s future.

In addition, people who have gone abroad from the war zone may have nowhere to return, so their return depends on the rapid recovery of their regions or the provision of support to move to the other areas of Ukraine. Other potential reasons why a more significant number of Ukrainians may remain abroad are the reluctance of survey respondents to give “socially undesirable answers”, as well as the interpretation of “returning to Ukraine” as a temporary visit.

Next, we calculated how many, exactly which of the refugees and under what conditions can return to Ukraine, and how the non-return of refugees can affect the Ukrainian economy. According to our calculations, from 860,000 to 2.7 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. Older people, people with a lower level of education, and those who worked before the war are more likely to return. The non-return of Ukrainians will significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, which may lose from 2.55 to 7.71% of its GDP.

Ultimately, we looked in detail at two factors influencing whether Ukrainians will return: how residents in other countries treat Ukrainian refugees and how Ukrainians adapt to EU labour markets. Europeans have a mostly positive attitude towards Ukrainian refugees, although some Ukrainians note that the mood has worsened.

Ukrainians adapt to the EU labour markets faster than refugees of previous waves, which is not surprising, given the high level of education and qualifications of Ukrainians, the granting of temporary protection status by the EU to all Ukrainians, which gives the right to work immediately, as well as the willingness of Ukrainians to make additional efforts to find a job.

The research was carried out with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.